Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Splunk Inc. (SPLK)

$108.5

+6.50 (+6.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.61 | 108.5 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,270.791,803.012,358.932,229.382,673.663,256.193,965.644,829.665,881.947,163.47
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 262.90296.45-287.64-190.86128.05137.83167.87204.44248.98303.23
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.50-23.16-103.71-51.71-8.58-64.70-78.79-95.96-116.87-142.33
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 242.40273.29-391.34-242.57119.4773.1489.07108.48132.11160.90

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 108.5
Beta 1.317
Diluted Shares Outstanding 161.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.39
After-tax Cost of Debt -5.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.961
Total Debt 3,137.73
Total Equity 17,536.64
Total Capital 20,674.37
Debt Weighting 15.18
Equity Weighting 84.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,270.791,803.012,358.932,229.382,673.663,256.193,965.644,829.665,881.947,163.47
Operating Cash Flow 262.90296.45-287.64-190.86128.05137.83167.87204.44248.98303.23
Capital Expenditure -20.50-23.16-103.71-51.71-8.58-64.70-78.79-95.96-116.87-142.33
Free Cash Flow 242.40273.29-391.34-242.57119.4773.1489.07108.48132.11160.90
WACC
PV LFCF 68.5178.1589.15101.70116.01
SUM PV LFCF 453.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 164.12
Terminal Value 3,447.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,486

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,939.51
Net Debt 1,709.04
Equity Value 1,230.47
Shares Outstanding 161.63
Equity Value Per Share 7.61