Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Splunk Inc. (SPLK)

$97.86

+5.50 (+5.95%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -261.91 | 97.86 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,270.79	1,803.01	2,358.93	2,229.38	2,673.66	3,256.19	3,965.64	4,829.66	5,881.94	7,163.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-216.80	-168.80	-167.74	-684.31	-1,396.24	-758.37	-923.60	-1,124.83	-1,369.91	-1,668.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-257.75	-221.23	-235.40	-777.97	-1,495.38	-868.48	-1,057.70	-1,288.15	-1,568.80	-1,910.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	40.94	52.43	67.66	93.67	99.14	110.11	134.10	163.32	198.90	242.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,165.15	2,757.39	1,755.16	1,858.91	1,715.03	3,038.37	3,700.36	4,506.58	5,488.46	6,684.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	391.80	469.66	838.74	1,114.20	1,306.67	1,245.72	1,517.14	1,847.69	2,250.26	2,740.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	11.04	20.42	18.94	9.32	59.21	35.40	43.12	52.51	63.95	77.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-20.50	-23.16	-103.71	-51.71	-8.58	-64.70	-78.79	-95.96	-116.87	-142.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 97.86
Beta	1.330
Diluted Shares Outstanding	161.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-1.39
After-tax Cost of Debt	-5.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.402
Total Debt	3,137.73
Total Equity	15,816.92
Total Capital	18,954.65
Debt Weighting	16.55
Equity Weighting	83.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,270.79	1,803.01	2,358.93	2,229.38	2,673.66	3,256.19	3,965.64	4,829.66	5,881.94	7,163.47
EBITDA	-216.80	-168.80	-167.74	-684.31	-1,396.24	-758.37	-923.60	-1,124.83	-1,369.91	-1,668.38
EBIT	-257.75	-221.23	-235.40	-777.97	-1,495.38	-868.48	-1,057.70	-1,288.15	-1,568.80	-1,910.61
Tax Rate	-0.53%	-4.71%	-1.51%	-0.77%	-1.39%	-1.78%	-1.78%	-1.78%	-1.78%	-1.78%
EBIAT	-259.10	-231.64	-238.96	-783.96	-1,516.12	-883.94	-1,076.53	-1,311.08	-1,596.73	-1,944.62
Depreciation	40.94	52.43	67.66	93.67	99.14	110.11	134.10	163.32	198.90	242.23
Accounts Receivable	-	-77.86	-369.09	-275.46	-192.47	60.94	-271.41	-330.55	-402.57	-490.28
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	9.38	-1.48	-9.62	49.89	-23.80	7.71	9.39	11.44	13.93
Capital Expenditure	-20.50	-23.16	-103.71	-51.71	-8.58	-64.70	-78.79	-95.96	-116.87	-142.33
UFCF	-238.66	-270.85	-645.58	-1,027.08	-1,568.13	-801.39	-1,284.92	-1,564.88	-1,905.83	-2,321.07
WACC
PV UFCF						-749.45	-1,123.77	-1,279.92	-1,457.76	-1,660.31
SUM PV UFCF										-6,271.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.93
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,367.49
Terminal Value	-48,022.06
Present Value of Terminal Value	-34,351.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-40,622.49
Net Debt	1,709.04
Equity Value	-42,331.53
Shares Outstanding	161.63
Equity Value Per Share	-261.91