Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Splunk Inc. (SPLK)
$108.5
+6.50 (+6.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,270.79 | 1,803.01 | 2,358.93 | 2,229.38 | 2,673.66 | 3,256.19 | 3,965.64 | 4,829.66 | 5,881.94 | 7,163.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -216.80 | -168.80 | -167.74 | -684.31 | -1,396.24 | -758.37 | -923.60 | -1,124.83 | -1,369.91 | -1,668.38 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -257.75 | -221.23 | -235.40 | -777.97 | -1,495.38 | -868.48 | -1,057.70 | -1,288.15 | -1,568.80 | -1,910.61 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 40.94 | 52.43 | 67.66 | 93.67 | 99.14 | 110.11 | 134.10 | 163.32 | 198.90 | 242.23 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,165.15 | 2,757.39 | 1,755.16 | 1,858.91 | 1,715.03 | 3,038.37 | 3,700.36 | 4,506.58 | 5,488.46 | 6,684.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 391.80 | 469.66 | 838.74 | 1,114.20 | 1,306.67 | 1,245.72 | 1,517.14 | 1,847.69 | 2,250.26 | 2,740.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 11.04 | 20.42 | 18.94 | 9.32 | 59.21 | 35.40 | 43.12 | 52.51 | 63.95 | 77.89 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -20.50 | -23.16 | -103.71 | -51.71 | -8.58 | -64.70 | -78.79 | -95.96 | -116.87 | -142.33 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 108.5 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.317 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 161.63 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -1.39 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -5.56% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.961 |
Total Debt | 3,137.73 |
Total Equity | 17,536.64 |
Total Capital | 20,674.37 |
Debt Weighting | 15.18 |
Equity Weighting | 84.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,270.79 | 1,803.01 | 2,358.93 | 2,229.38 | 2,673.66 | 3,256.19 | 3,965.64 | 4,829.66 | 5,881.94 | 7,163.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -216.80 | -168.80 | -167.74 | -684.31 | -1,396.24 | -758.37 | -923.60 | -1,124.83 | -1,369.91 | -1,668.38 |
EBIT | -257.75 | -221.23 | -235.40 | -777.97 | -1,495.38 | -868.48 | -1,057.70 | -1,288.15 | -1,568.80 | -1,910.61 |
Tax Rate | -0.53% | -4.71% | -1.51% | -0.77% | -1.39% | -1.78% | -1.78% | -1.78% | -1.78% | -1.78% |
EBIAT | -259.10 | -231.64 | -238.96 | -783.96 | -1,516.12 | -883.94 | -1,076.53 | -1,311.08 | -1,596.73 | -1,944.62 |
Depreciation | 40.94 | 52.43 | 67.66 | 93.67 | 99.14 | 110.11 | 134.10 | 163.32 | 198.90 | 242.23 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -77.86 | -369.09 | -275.46 | -192.47 | 60.94 | -271.41 | -330.55 | -402.57 | -490.28 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 9.38 | -1.48 | -9.62 | 49.89 | -23.80 | 7.71 | 9.39 | 11.44 | 13.93 |
Capital Expenditure | -20.50 | -23.16 | -103.71 | -51.71 | -8.58 | -64.70 | -78.79 | -95.96 | -116.87 | -142.33 |
UFCF | -238.66 | -270.85 | -645.58 | -1,027.08 | -1,568.13 | -801.39 | -1,284.92 | -1,564.88 | -1,905.83 | -2,321.07 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -750.64 | -1,127.35 | -1,286.04 | -1,467.07 | -1,673.57 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -6,304.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.76 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,367.49 |
Terminal Value | -49,737.13 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -35,862.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -42,166.96 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,709.04 |
Equity Value | -43,876 |
Shares Outstanding | 161.63 |
Equity Value Per Share | -271.46 |