Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Splunk Inc. (SPLK)

$108.5

+6.50 (+6.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -271.46 | 108.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,270.791,803.012,358.932,229.382,673.663,256.193,965.644,829.665,881.947,163.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -216.80-168.80-167.74-684.31-1,396.24-758.37-923.60-1,124.83-1,369.91-1,668.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -257.75-221.23-235.40-777.97-1,495.38-868.48-1,057.70-1,288.15-1,568.80-1,910.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 40.9452.4367.6693.6799.14110.11134.10163.32198.90242.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,165.152,757.391,755.161,858.911,715.033,038.373,700.364,506.585,488.466,684.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 391.80469.66838.741,114.201,306.671,245.721,517.141,847.692,250.262,740.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.0420.4218.949.3259.2135.4043.1252.5163.9577.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.50-23.16-103.71-51.71-8.58-64.70-78.79-95.96-116.87-142.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 108.5
Beta 1.317
Diluted Shares Outstanding 161.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.39
After-tax Cost of Debt -5.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.961
Total Debt 3,137.73
Total Equity 17,536.64
Total Capital 20,674.37
Debt Weighting 15.18
Equity Weighting 84.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,270.791,803.012,358.932,229.382,673.663,256.193,965.644,829.665,881.947,163.47
EBITDA -216.80-168.80-167.74-684.31-1,396.24-758.37-923.60-1,124.83-1,369.91-1,668.38
EBIT -257.75-221.23-235.40-777.97-1,495.38-868.48-1,057.70-1,288.15-1,568.80-1,910.61
Tax Rate -0.53%-4.71%-1.51%-0.77%-1.39%-1.78%-1.78%-1.78%-1.78%-1.78%
EBIAT -259.10-231.64-238.96-783.96-1,516.12-883.94-1,076.53-1,311.08-1,596.73-1,944.62
Depreciation 40.9452.4367.6693.6799.14110.11134.10163.32198.90242.23
Accounts Receivable --77.86-369.09-275.46-192.4760.94-271.41-330.55-402.57-490.28
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -9.38-1.48-9.6249.89-23.807.719.3911.4413.93
Capital Expenditure -20.50-23.16-103.71-51.71-8.58-64.70-78.79-95.96-116.87-142.33
UFCF -238.66-270.85-645.58-1,027.08-1,568.13-801.39-1,284.92-1,564.88-1,905.83-2,321.07
WACC
PV UFCF -750.64-1,127.35-1,286.04-1,467.07-1,673.57
SUM PV UFCF -6,304.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,367.49
Terminal Value -49,737.13
Present Value of Terminal Value -35,862.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -42,166.96
Net Debt 1,709.04
Equity Value -43,876
Shares Outstanding 161.63
Equity Value Per Share -271.46