Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC)

$37.6

-1.23 (-3.17%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -12.55 | 37.6 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	445.13	516.43	483.62	608.39	709.63	802.07	906.55	1,024.64	1,158.11	1,308.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	336.37	339.05	314.31	411.13	486.45	549.16	620.69	701.55	792.93	896.23
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-163.05	-1,041.92	-12.66	-21.96	-88.67	-412.44	-466.16	-526.89	-595.52	-673.09
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	173.32	-702.87	301.65	389.18	397.77	136.72	154.53	174.66	197.41	223.13

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 37.6
Beta	1.306
Diluted Shares Outstanding	134.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	3.93
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.665
Total Debt	5,563.10
Total Equity	5,062.68
Total Capital	10,625.78
Debt Weighting	52.35
Equity Weighting	47.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	445.13	516.43	483.62	608.39	709.63	802.07	906.55	1,024.64	1,158.11	1,308.97
Operating Cash Flow	336.37	339.05	314.31	411.13	486.45	549.16	620.69	701.55	792.93	896.23
Capital Expenditure	-163.05	-1,041.92	-12.66	-21.96	-88.67	-412.44	-466.16	-526.89	-595.52	-673.09
Free Cash Flow	173.32	-702.87	301.65	389.18	397.77	136.72	154.53	174.66	197.41	223.13
WACC
PV LFCF						127.63	134.67	142.10	149.93	158.20
SUM PV LFCF										712.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.12
Free cash flow (t + 1)	227.59
Terminal Value	4,445.18
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,151.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,864.18
Net Debt	5,554.34
Equity Value	-1,690.15
Shares Outstanding	134.65
Equity Value Per Share	-12.55