Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC)
$39.345
+0.61 (+1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 445.13 | 516.43 | 483.62 | 608.39 | 709.63 | 802.07 | 906.55 | 1,024.64 | 1,158.11 | 1,308.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 420.44 | 457 | 338.49 | 415.72 | 569.05 | 644 | 727.88 | 822.70 | 929.87 | 1,051 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 222.53 | 281.54 | 125.87 | 171.10 | 276.06 | 316.91 | 358.20 | 404.86 | 457.59 | 517.20 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 197.91 | 175.46 | 212.62 | 244.62 | 292.99 | 327.08 | 369.69 | 417.85 | 472.28 | 533.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 14.49 | 14.49 | 70.30 | 6,463.33 | 7,933.54 | 3,530.62 | 3,990.54 | 4,510.36 | 5,097.90 | 5,761.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 47.04 | 34.47 | 41.69 | 52.45 | 61.18 | 69.15 | 78.16 | 88.34 | 99.84 | 112.85 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 119.77 | 138.95 | 130.12 | 163.70 | 190.94 | 215.81 | 243.92 | 275.70 | 311.61 | 352.20 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -163.05 | -1,041.92 | -12.66 | -21.96 | -88.67 | -412.44 | -466.16 | -526.89 | -595.52 | -673.09 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 39.345 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.306 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 134.65 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.93 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.80% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.669 |
| Total Debt | 5,563.10 |
| Total Equity | 5,297.63 |
| Total Capital | 10,860.74 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 445.13 | 516.43 | 483.62 | 608.39 | 709.63 | 802.07 | 906.55 | 1,024.64 | 1,158.11 | 1,308.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 420.44 | 457 | 338.49 | 415.72 | 569.05 | 644 | 727.88 | 822.70 | 929.87 | 1,051 |
| EBIT | 222.53 | 281.54 | 125.87 | 171.10 | 276.06 | 316.91 | 358.20 | 404.86 | 457.59 | 517.20 |
| Tax Rate | 11.54% | 6.16% | 1.01% | 0.35% | 3.93% | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.60% |
| EBIAT | 196.84 | 264.20 | 124.59 | 170.49 | 265.22 | 302.34 | 341.72 | 386.24 | 436.55 | 493.42 |
| Depreciation | 197.91 | 175.46 | 212.62 | 244.62 | 292.99 | 327.08 | 369.69 | 417.85 | 472.28 | 533.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 12.58 | -7.23 | -10.76 | -8.73 | -7.97 | -9.01 | -10.18 | -11.51 | -13.01 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 19.18 | -8.83 | 33.57 | 27.24 | 24.87 | 28.11 | 31.77 | 35.91 | 40.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -163.05 | -1,041.92 | -12.66 | -21.96 | -88.67 | -412.44 | -466.16 | -526.89 | -595.52 | -673.09 |
| UFCF | 231.71 | -570.49 | 308.50 | 415.97 | 488.04 | 233.89 | 264.36 | 298.79 | 337.72 | 381.71 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 218.22 | 230.12 | 242.68 | 255.91 | 269.87 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,216.81 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.18 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 389.34 |
| Terminal Value | 7,516.25 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,314.13 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 6,530.94 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,554.34 |
| Equity Value | 976.61 |
| Shares Outstanding | 134.65 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 7.25 |