Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

$35.13

+0.96 (+2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 93.36 | 35.13 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 39,59239,86624,66239,13258,33668,588.9180,643.8494,817.50111,482.26131,075.96
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 10,58010,4212,67511,76415,68016,550.5619,459.4322,879.5426,900.7631,628.74
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,770.06-10,311.45-12,123.75-14,254.58-16,759.91
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5,1744,863-1,2517,20910,5607,780.509,147.9710,755.7912,646.1814,868.83

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.13
Beta 1.640
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,390
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.367
Total Debt 15,619
Total Equity 48,830.70
Total Capital 64,449.70
Debt Weighting 24.23
Equity Weighting 75.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 39,59239,86624,66239,13258,33668,588.9180,643.8494,817.50111,482.26131,075.96
Operating Cash Flow 10,58010,4212,67511,76415,68016,550.5619,459.4322,879.5426,900.7631,628.74
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,770.06-10,311.45-12,123.75-14,254.58-16,759.91
Free Cash Flow 5,1744,863-1,2517,20910,5607,780.509,147.9710,755.7912,646.1814,868.83
WACC
PV LFCF 7,024.027,455.577,913.638,399.848,915.92
SUM PV LFCF 39,708.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 15,166.21
Terminal Value 172,932.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 103,697.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 143,406.06
Net Debt 13,639
Equity Value 129,767.06
Shares Outstanding 1,390
Equity Value Per Share 93.36