Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

$29.72

+0.95 (+3.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 101.14 | 29.72 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 38,54238,34424,66241,13358,33668,896.8481,369.5596,100.26113,497.73134,044.76
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 10,58010,4212,67511,76415,68016,666.6319,683.8723,247.3427,455.9132,426.38
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,858.91-10,462.68-12,356.79-14,593.80-17,235.78
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5,1744,863-1,2517,20910,5607,807.729,221.1910,890.5412,862.1115,190.60

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.72
Beta 1.661
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,489
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.321
Total Debt 15,619
Total Equity 44,253.08
Total Capital 59,872.08
Debt Weighting 26.09
Equity Weighting 73.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 38,54238,34424,66241,13358,33668,896.8481,369.5596,100.26113,497.73134,044.76
Operating Cash Flow 10,58010,4212,67511,76415,68016,666.6319,683.8723,247.3427,455.9132,426.38
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,858.91-10,462.68-12,356.79-14,593.80-17,235.78
Free Cash Flow 5,1744,863-1,2517,20910,5607,807.729,221.1910,890.5412,862.1115,190.60
WACC
PV LFCF 7,106.337,638.868,211.308,826.649,488.10
SUM PV LFCF 41,271.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) 15,494.41
Terminal Value 196,879.38
Present Value of Terminal Value 122,971.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 164,242.77
Net Debt 13,639
Equity Value 150,603.77
Shares Outstanding 1,489
Equity Value Per Share 101.14