Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
$29.72
+0.95 (+3.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 41,133 | 58,336 | 68,896.84 | 81,369.55 | 96,100.26 | 113,497.73 | 134,044.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 15,680 | 16,666.63 | 19,683.87 | 23,247.34 | 27,455.91 | 32,426.38 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,858.91 | -10,462.68 | -12,356.79 | -14,593.80 | -17,235.78 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 10,560 | 7,807.72 | 9,221.19 | 10,890.54 | 12,862.11 | 15,190.60 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.72 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.661 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,489 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.30 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.321 |
| Total Debt | 15,619 |
| Total Equity | 44,253.08 |
| Total Capital | 59,872.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.09 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.91 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 41,133 | 58,336 | 68,896.84 | 81,369.55 | 96,100.26 | 113,497.73 | 134,044.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 15,680 | 16,666.63 | 19,683.87 | 23,247.34 | 27,455.91 | 32,426.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,858.91 | -10,462.68 | -12,356.79 | -14,593.80 | -17,235.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 10,560 | 7,807.72 | 9,221.19 | 10,890.54 | 12,862.11 | 15,190.60 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,106.33 | 7,638.86 | 8,211.30 | 8,826.64 | 9,488.10 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 41,271.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.87 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15,494.41 |
| Terminal Value | 196,879.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 122,971.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 164,242.77 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,639 |
| Equity Value | 150,603.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,489 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 101.14 |