Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
$35.13
+0.96 (+2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 39,592 | 39,866 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 58,336 | 68,588.91 | 80,643.84 | 94,817.50 | 111,482.26 | 131,075.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 15,680 | 16,550.56 | 19,459.43 | 22,879.54 | 26,900.76 | 31,628.74 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,770.06 | -10,311.45 | -12,123.75 | -14,254.58 | -16,759.91 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 10,560 | 7,780.50 | 9,147.97 | 10,755.79 | 12,646.18 | 14,868.83 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 35.13 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.640 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,390 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.30 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.367 |
| Total Debt | 15,619 |
| Total Equity | 48,830.70 |
| Total Capital | 64,449.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 39,592 | 39,866 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 58,336 | 68,588.91 | 80,643.84 | 94,817.50 | 111,482.26 | 131,075.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 15,680 | 16,550.56 | 19,459.43 | 22,879.54 | 26,900.76 | 31,628.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,770.06 | -10,311.45 | -12,123.75 | -14,254.58 | -16,759.91 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 10,560 | 7,780.50 | 9,147.97 | 10,755.79 | 12,646.18 | 14,868.83 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,024.02 | 7,455.57 | 7,913.63 | 8,399.84 | 8,915.92 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 39,708.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.77 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15,166.21 |
| Terminal Value | 172,932.80 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 103,697.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 143,406.06 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,639 |
| Equity Value | 129,767.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,390 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 93.36 |