Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

$28.54

+0.09 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 143.05 | 28.54 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 38,54238,34424,66241,13358,33668,896.8481,369.5596,100.26113,497.73134,044.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,84014,3644,74312,68522,32421,567.4125,471.8630,083.1435,529.2441,961.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,1023,792-4,7836,8358,424.355,151.456,084.047,185.468,486.2710,022.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,73810,5729,5265,85013,899.6516,415.9619,387.8222,897.6927,042.9631,938.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2,2211,9601,8852,2051,9803,757.954,438.275,241.756,190.697,311.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,3204,1853,8844,6626,3127,913.679,346.3211,038.3313,036.6415,396.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,1593,7613,6174,1105,0587,073.448,353.989,866.3411,652.4813,761.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,6476,5554,6846,5038,16711,099.1713,108.5015,481.6018,284.3021,594.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,858.91-10,462.68-12,356.79-14,593.80-17,235.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.54
Beta 1.661
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,489
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.652
Total Debt 15,619
Total Equity 42,496.06
Total Capital 58,115.06
Debt Weighting 26.88
Equity Weighting 73.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 38,54238,34424,66241,13358,33668,896.8481,369.5596,100.26113,497.73134,044.76
EBITDA 11,84014,3644,74312,68522,32421,567.4125,471.8630,083.1435,529.2441,961.26
EBIT 6,1023,792-4,7836,8358,424.355,151.456,084.047,185.468,486.2710,022.58
Tax Rate 33.92%-14.45%29.16%26.05%26.30%20.20%20.20%20.20%20.20%20.20%
EBIAT 4,032.494,339.92-3,388.195,054.466,208.824,111.094,855.345,734.326,772.437,998.48
Depreciation 5,73810,5729,5265,85013,899.6516,415.9619,387.8222,897.6927,042.9631,938.67
Accounts Receivable --865301-778-1,650-1,601.67-1,432.65-1,692.01-1,998.32-2,360.08
Inventories --602144-493-948-2,015.44-1,280.54-1,512.36-1,786.15-2,109.50
Accounts Payable -908-1,8711,8191,6642,932.172,009.332,373.092,802.713,310.09
Capital Expenditure -5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-5,120-8,858.91-10,462.68-12,356.79-14,593.80-17,235.78
UFCF 4,364.498,794.92785.816,897.4614,054.4710,983.2013,076.6215,443.9418,239.8321,541.87
WACC
PV UFCF 9,978.3710,793.3811,581.1412,426.3913,333.33
SUM PV UFCF 58,112.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 21,972.71
Terminal Value 272,276.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 168,525.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 226,637.96
Net Debt 13,639
Equity Value 212,998.96
Shares Outstanding 1,489
Equity Value Per Share 143.05