Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
$28.54
+0.09 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 41,133 | 58,336 | 68,896.84 | 81,369.55 | 96,100.26 | 113,497.73 | 134,044.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 11,840 | 14,364 | 4,743 | 12,685 | 22,324 | 21,567.41 | 25,471.86 | 30,083.14 | 35,529.24 | 41,961.26 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 6,102 | 3,792 | -4,783 | 6,835 | 8,424.35 | 5,151.45 | 6,084.04 | 7,185.46 | 8,486.27 | 10,022.58 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 5,738 | 10,572 | 9,526 | 5,850 | 13,899.65 | 16,415.96 | 19,387.82 | 22,897.69 | 27,042.96 | 31,938.67 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 2,221 | 1,960 | 1,885 | 2,205 | 1,980 | 3,757.95 | 4,438.27 | 5,241.75 | 6,190.69 | 7,311.42 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 3,320 | 4,185 | 3,884 | 4,662 | 6,312 | 7,913.67 | 9,346.32 | 11,038.33 | 13,036.64 | 15,396.73 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,159 | 3,761 | 3,617 | 4,110 | 5,058 | 7,073.44 | 8,353.98 | 9,866.34 | 11,652.48 | 13,761.99 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 5,647 | 6,555 | 4,684 | 6,503 | 8,167 | 11,099.17 | 13,108.50 | 15,481.60 | 18,284.30 | 21,594.39 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,858.91 | -10,462.68 | -12,356.79 | -14,593.80 | -17,235.78 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 28.54 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.661 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,489 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.30 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.76% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.652 |
Total Debt | 15,619 |
Total Equity | 42,496.06 |
Total Capital | 58,115.06 |
Debt Weighting | 26.88 |
Equity Weighting | 73.12 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 41,133 | 58,336 | 68,896.84 | 81,369.55 | 96,100.26 | 113,497.73 | 134,044.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 11,840 | 14,364 | 4,743 | 12,685 | 22,324 | 21,567.41 | 25,471.86 | 30,083.14 | 35,529.24 | 41,961.26 |
EBIT | 6,102 | 3,792 | -4,783 | 6,835 | 8,424.35 | 5,151.45 | 6,084.04 | 7,185.46 | 8,486.27 | 10,022.58 |
Tax Rate | 33.92% | -14.45% | 29.16% | 26.05% | 26.30% | 20.20% | 20.20% | 20.20% | 20.20% | 20.20% |
EBIAT | 4,032.49 | 4,339.92 | -3,388.19 | 5,054.46 | 6,208.82 | 4,111.09 | 4,855.34 | 5,734.32 | 6,772.43 | 7,998.48 |
Depreciation | 5,738 | 10,572 | 9,526 | 5,850 | 13,899.65 | 16,415.96 | 19,387.82 | 22,897.69 | 27,042.96 | 31,938.67 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -865 | 301 | -778 | -1,650 | -1,601.67 | -1,432.65 | -1,692.01 | -1,998.32 | -2,360.08 |
Inventories | - | -602 | 144 | -493 | -948 | -2,015.44 | -1,280.54 | -1,512.36 | -1,786.15 | -2,109.50 |
Accounts Payable | - | 908 | -1,871 | 1,819 | 1,664 | 2,932.17 | 2,009.33 | 2,373.09 | 2,802.71 | 3,310.09 |
Capital Expenditure | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -5,120 | -8,858.91 | -10,462.68 | -12,356.79 | -14,593.80 | -17,235.78 |
UFCF | 4,364.49 | 8,794.92 | 785.81 | 6,897.46 | 14,054.47 | 10,983.20 | 13,076.62 | 15,443.94 | 18,239.83 | 21,541.87 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 9,978.37 | 10,793.38 | 11,581.14 | 12,426.39 | 13,333.33 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 58,112.61 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.07 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 21,972.71 |
Terminal Value | 272,276.43 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 168,525.34 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 226,637.96 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 13,639 |
Equity Value | 212,998.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,489 |
Equity Value Per Share | 143.05 |