Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

$28.54

+0.09 (+0.32%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 143.05 | 28.54 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	38,542	38,344	24,662	41,133	58,336	68,896.84	81,369.55	96,100.26	113,497.73	134,044.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	11,840	14,364	4,743	12,685	22,324	21,567.41	25,471.86	30,083.14	35,529.24	41,961.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	6,102	3,792	-4,783	6,835	8,424.35	5,151.45	6,084.04	7,185.46	8,486.27	10,022.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	5,738	10,572	9,526	5,850	13,899.65	16,415.96	19,387.82	22,897.69	27,042.96	31,938.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,221	1,960	1,885	2,205	1,980	3,757.95	4,438.27	5,241.75	6,190.69	7,311.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,320	4,185	3,884	4,662	6,312	7,913.67	9,346.32	11,038.33	13,036.64	15,396.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,159	3,761	3,617	4,110	5,058	7,073.44	8,353.98	9,866.34	11,652.48	13,761.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	5,647	6,555	4,684	6,503	8,167	11,099.17	13,108.50	15,481.60	18,284.30	21,594.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-5,406	-5,558	-3,926	-4,555	-5,120	-8,858.91	-10,462.68	-12,356.79	-14,593.80	-17,235.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28.54
Beta	1.661
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,489
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.30
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.652
Total Debt	15,619
Total Equity	42,496.06
Total Capital	58,115.06
Debt Weighting	26.88
Equity Weighting	73.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	38,542	38,344	24,662	41,133	58,336	68,896.84	81,369.55	96,100.26	113,497.73	134,044.76
EBITDA	11,840	14,364	4,743	12,685	22,324	21,567.41	25,471.86	30,083.14	35,529.24	41,961.26
EBIT	6,102	3,792	-4,783	6,835	8,424.35	5,151.45	6,084.04	7,185.46	8,486.27	10,022.58
Tax Rate	33.92%	-14.45%	29.16%	26.05%	26.30%	20.20%	20.20%	20.20%	20.20%	20.20%
EBIAT	4,032.49	4,339.92	-3,388.19	5,054.46	6,208.82	4,111.09	4,855.34	5,734.32	6,772.43	7,998.48
Depreciation	5,738	10,572	9,526	5,850	13,899.65	16,415.96	19,387.82	22,897.69	27,042.96	31,938.67
Accounts Receivable	-	-865	301	-778	-1,650	-1,601.67	-1,432.65	-1,692.01	-1,998.32	-2,360.08
Inventories	-	-602	144	-493	-948	-2,015.44	-1,280.54	-1,512.36	-1,786.15	-2,109.50
Accounts Payable	-	908	-1,871	1,819	1,664	2,932.17	2,009.33	2,373.09	2,802.71	3,310.09
Capital Expenditure	-5,406	-5,558	-3,926	-4,555	-5,120	-8,858.91	-10,462.68	-12,356.79	-14,593.80	-17,235.78
UFCF	4,364.49	8,794.92	785.81	6,897.46	14,054.47	10,983.20	13,076.62	15,443.94	18,239.83	21,541.87
WACC
PV UFCF						9,978.37	10,793.38	11,581.14	12,426.39	13,333.33
SUM PV UFCF										58,112.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.07
Free cash flow (t + 1)	21,972.71
Terminal Value	272,276.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	168,525.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	226,637.96
Net Debt	13,639
Equity Value	212,998.96
Shares Outstanding	1,489
Equity Value Per Share	143.05