Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

TimkenSteel Corporation (TMST)

$15.6

+0.58 (+3.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 25.66 | 15.6 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.201,610.601,208.808301,282.901,345.291,410.711,479.321,551.261,626.70
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 8.1018.5070.30173.50196.90117.92123.65129.66135.97142.58
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -33-40-38-16.90-12.20-29.86-31.31-32.83-34.43-36.10
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -24.90-21.5032.30156.60184.7088.0692.3496.83101.54106.48

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.6
Beta 1.813
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.289
Total Debt 59.40
Total Equity 702
Total Capital 761.40
Debt Weighting 7.80
Equity Weighting 92.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.201,610.601,208.808301,282.901,345.291,410.711,479.321,551.261,626.70
Operating Cash Flow 8.1018.5070.30173.50196.90117.92123.65129.66135.97142.58
Capital Expenditure -33-40-38-16.90-12.20-29.86-31.31-32.83-34.43-36.10
Free Cash Flow -24.90-21.5032.30156.60184.7088.0692.3496.83101.54106.48
WACC
PV LFCF 78.5773.5168.7864.3560.20
SUM PV LFCF 345.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) 108.61
Terminal Value 1,077.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 609.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 954.60
Net Debt -200.20
Equity Value 1,154.80
Shares Outstanding 45
Equity Value Per Share 25.66