Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TimkenSteel Corporation (TMST)

$14.99

-0.22 (-1.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 10.25 | 14.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.201,610.601,208.808301,282.901,345.291,410.711,479.321,551.261,626.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 47.4076.40-36.9022.20245.7072.8776.4180.1384.0388.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -27.503.40-110.40-47.80182.60-6.77-7.10-7.45-7.81-8.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 74.907373.507063.1079.6483.5187.5891.8496.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 24.5021.6027.10102259.60102.11107.08112.28117.74123.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 149.80163.4077.5063100.50116.37122.03127.96134.19140.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 224374.50281.90178210.90272.58285.84299.74314.32329.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 135.30160.6069.3089141.90128.25134.49141.03147.89155.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33-40-38-16.90-12.20-29.86-31.31-32.83-34.43-36.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.99
Beta 1.813
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.360
Total Debt 59.40
Total Equity 674.55
Total Capital 733.95
Debt Weighting 8.09
Equity Weighting 91.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.201,610.601,208.808301,282.901,345.291,410.711,479.321,551.261,626.70
EBITDA 47.4076.40-36.9022.20245.7072.8776.4180.1384.0388.11
EBIT -27.503.40-110.40-47.80182.60-6.77-7.10-7.45-7.81-8.19
Tax Rate -3.55%-21.95%12.77%-1.67%3.23%-2.23%-2.23%-2.23%-2.23%-2.23%
EBIAT -28.484.15-96.30-48.60176.71-6.92-7.26-7.61-7.98-8.37
Depreciation 74.907373.507063.1079.6483.5187.5891.8496.30
Accounts Receivable --13.6085.9014.50-37.50-15.87-5.66-5.93-6.22-6.53
Inventories --150.5092.60103.90-32.90-61.68-13.26-13.90-14.58-15.29
Accounts Payable -25.30-91.3019.7052.90-13.656.246.546.867.19
Capital Expenditure -33-40-38-16.90-12.20-29.86-31.31-32.83-34.43-36.10
UFCF 13.42-101.6526.40142.60210.11-48.3432.2733.8435.4837.21
WACC
PV UFCF -43.1125.6623.9922.4420.98
SUM PV UFCF 49.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 37.95
Terminal Value 374.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 211.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 261.03
Net Debt -200.20
Equity Value 461.23
Shares Outstanding 45
Equity Value Per Share 10.25