Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

$246.38

+5.88 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 47.98 | 246.38 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,461.2724,57831,53653,82381,462115,035.69162,446.43229,396.99323,940.50457,449.12
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 2,097.802,4055,94311,49714,72417,908.8925,289.8535,712.7950,431.4371,216.21
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,319.52-1,437-3,242-8,014-7,172-11,648.19-16,448.86-23,228.08-32,801.29-46,319.99
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -221.719682,7013,4837,5526,260.708,840.9812,484.7017,630.1424,896.21

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 246.38
Beta 2.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,475
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.458
Total Debt 3,099
Total Equity 856,170.50
Total Capital 859,269.50
Debt Weighting 0.36
Equity Weighting 99.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,461.2724,57831,53653,82381,462115,035.69162,446.43229,396.99323,940.50457,449.12
Operating Cash Flow 2,097.802,4055,94311,49714,72417,908.8925,289.8535,712.7950,431.4371,216.21
Capital Expenditure -2,319.52-1,437-3,242-8,014-7,172-11,648.19-16,448.86-23,228.08-32,801.29-46,319.99
Free Cash Flow -221.719682,7013,4837,5526,260.708,840.9812,484.7017,630.1424,896.21
WACC
PV LFCF 5,471.216,751.828,332.1810,282.4412,689.19
SUM PV LFCF 43,526.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25,394.14
Terminal Value 204,297.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 104,126.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 147,653.70
Net Debt -19,086
Equity Value 166,739.70
Shares Outstanding 3,475
Equity Value Per Share 47.98