Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
$242.14
+1.64 (+0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,461.27 | 24,578 | 31,536 | 53,823 | 81,462 | 115,035.69 | 162,446.43 | 229,396.99 | 323,940.50 | 457,449.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,694.61 | 2,323 | 4,224 | 9,598 | 17,833 | 16,212.12 | 22,893.77 | 32,329.19 | 45,653.32 | 64,468.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -206.44 | 169 | 1,902 | 6,687 | 14,086 | 8,161.19 | 11,524.74 | 16,274.54 | 22,981.92 | 32,453.67 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,901.05 | 2,154 | 2,322 | 2,911 | 3,747 | 8,050.92 | 11,369.03 | 16,054.65 | 22,671.40 | 32,015.18 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 3,685.62 | 6,268 | 19,384 | 17,707 | 22,185 | 37,794.80 | 53,371.52 | 75,368.02 | 106,430.15 | 150,294.20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 949.02 | 1,324 | 1,886 | 1,913 | 2,952 | 5,284.15 | 7,461.96 | 10,537.32 | 14,880.17 | 21,012.87 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,113.45 | 3,552 | 4,101 | 5,757 | 12,839 | 15,741.55 | 22,229.27 | 31,390.82 | 44,328.22 | 62,597.62 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,404.45 | 3,771 | 6,051 | 10,025 | 15,255 | 20,187.89 | 28,508.11 | 40,257.43 | 56,849.10 | 80,278.85 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,319.52 | -1,437 | -3,242 | -8,014 | -7,172 | -11,648.19 | -16,448.86 | -23,228.08 | -32,801.29 | -46,319.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 242.14 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.089 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,475 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 8.28 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.65% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.502 |
Total Debt | 3,099 |
Total Equity | 841,436.50 |
Total Capital | 844,535.50 |
Debt Weighting | 0.37 |
Equity Weighting | 99.63 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,461.27 | 24,578 | 31,536 | 53,823 | 81,462 | 115,035.69 | 162,446.43 | 229,396.99 | 323,940.50 | 457,449.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,694.61 | 2,323 | 4,224 | 9,598 | 17,833 | 16,212.12 | 22,893.77 | 32,329.19 | 45,653.32 | 64,468.85 |
EBIT | -206.44 | 169 | 1,902 | 6,687 | 14,086 | 8,161.19 | 11,524.74 | 16,274.54 | 22,981.92 | 32,453.67 |
Tax Rate | 2.85% | -16.54% | 40.21% | 12.99% | 8.28% | 9.56% | 9.56% | 9.56% | 9.56% | 9.56% |
EBIAT | -200.55 | 196.95 | 1,137.24 | 5,818.31 | 12,919.61 | 7,381.15 | 10,423.21 | 14,719.03 | 20,785.32 | 29,351.77 |
Depreciation | 1,901.05 | 2,154 | 2,322 | 2,911 | 3,747 | 8,050.92 | 11,369.03 | 16,054.65 | 22,671.40 | 32,015.18 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -374.98 | -562 | -27 | -1,039 | -2,332.15 | -2,177.81 | -3,075.37 | -4,342.85 | -6,132.70 |
Inventories | - | -438.55 | -549 | -1,656 | -7,082 | -2,902.55 | -6,487.71 | -9,161.56 | -12,937.39 | -18,269.40 |
Accounts Payable | - | 366.55 | 2,280 | 3,974 | 5,230 | 4,932.89 | 8,320.22 | 11,749.32 | 16,591.67 | 23,429.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,319.52 | -1,437 | -3,242 | -8,014 | -7,172 | -11,648.19 | -16,448.86 | -23,228.08 | -32,801.29 | -46,319.99 |
UFCF | -619.02 | 466.97 | 1,386.24 | 3,006.31 | 6,603.61 | 3,482.08 | 4,998.08 | 7,057.99 | 9,966.87 | 14,074.60 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 3,041.91 | 3,814.35 | 4,705.50 | 5,804.86 | 7,161.07 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 24,527.69 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.47 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 14,356.10 |
Terminal Value | 115,125.07 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 58,574.89 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 83,102.58 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -19,086 |
Equity Value | 102,188.58 |
Shares Outstanding | 3,475 |
Equity Value Per Share | 29.41 |