Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

$242.14

+1.64 (+0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 29.41 | 242.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,461.2724,57831,53653,82381,462115,035.69162,446.43229,396.99323,940.50457,449.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,694.612,3234,2249,59817,83316,212.1222,893.7732,329.1945,653.3264,468.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -206.441691,9026,68714,0868,161.1911,524.7416,274.5422,981.9232,453.67
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,901.052,1542,3222,9113,7478,050.9211,369.0316,054.6522,671.4032,015.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3,685.626,26819,38417,70722,18537,794.8053,371.5275,368.02106,430.15150,294.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 949.021,3241,8861,9132,9525,284.157,461.9610,537.3214,880.1721,012.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,113.453,5524,1015,75712,83915,741.5522,229.2731,390.8244,328.2262,597.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,404.453,7716,05110,02515,25520,187.8928,508.1140,257.4356,849.1080,278.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,319.52-1,437-3,242-8,014-7,172-11,648.19-16,448.86-23,228.08-32,801.29-46,319.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 242.14
Beta 2.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,475
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.502
Total Debt 3,099
Total Equity 841,436.50
Total Capital 844,535.50
Debt Weighting 0.37
Equity Weighting 99.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,461.2724,57831,53653,82381,462115,035.69162,446.43229,396.99323,940.50457,449.12
EBITDA 1,694.612,3234,2249,59817,83316,212.1222,893.7732,329.1945,653.3264,468.85
EBIT -206.441691,9026,68714,0868,161.1911,524.7416,274.5422,981.9232,453.67
Tax Rate 2.85%-16.54%40.21%12.99%8.28%9.56%9.56%9.56%9.56%9.56%
EBIAT -200.55196.951,137.245,818.3112,919.617,381.1510,423.2114,719.0320,785.3229,351.77
Depreciation 1,901.052,1542,3222,9113,7478,050.9211,369.0316,054.6522,671.4032,015.18
Accounts Receivable --374.98-562-27-1,039-2,332.15-2,177.81-3,075.37-4,342.85-6,132.70
Inventories --438.55-549-1,656-7,082-2,902.55-6,487.71-9,161.56-12,937.39-18,269.40
Accounts Payable -366.552,2803,9745,2304,932.898,320.2211,749.3216,591.6723,429.75
Capital Expenditure -2,319.52-1,437-3,242-8,014-7,172-11,648.19-16,448.86-23,228.08-32,801.29-46,319.99
UFCF -619.02466.971,386.243,006.316,603.613,482.084,998.087,057.999,966.8714,074.60
WACC
PV UFCF 3,041.913,814.354,705.505,804.867,161.07
SUM PV UFCF 24,527.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 14,356.10
Terminal Value 115,125.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 58,574.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 83,102.58
Net Debt -19,086
Equity Value 102,188.58
Shares Outstanding 3,475
Equity Value Per Share 29.41