Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

$242.14

+1.64 (+0.68%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 29.41 | 242.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	21,461.27	24,578	31,536	53,823	81,462	115,035.69	162,446.43	229,396.99	323,940.50	457,449.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,694.61	2,323	4,224	9,598	17,833	16,212.12	22,893.77	32,329.19	45,653.32	64,468.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-206.44	169	1,902	6,687	14,086	8,161.19	11,524.74	16,274.54	22,981.92	32,453.67
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,901.05	2,154	2,322	2,911	3,747	8,050.92	11,369.03	16,054.65	22,671.40	32,015.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	3,685.62	6,268	19,384	17,707	22,185	37,794.80	53,371.52	75,368.02	106,430.15	150,294.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	949.02	1,324	1,886	1,913	2,952	5,284.15	7,461.96	10,537.32	14,880.17	21,012.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,113.45	3,552	4,101	5,757	12,839	15,741.55	22,229.27	31,390.82	44,328.22	62,597.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,404.45	3,771	6,051	10,025	15,255	20,187.89	28,508.11	40,257.43	56,849.10	80,278.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,319.52	-1,437	-3,242	-8,014	-7,172	-11,648.19	-16,448.86	-23,228.08	-32,801.29	-46,319.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 242.14
Beta	2.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding	3,475
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.28
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.502
Total Debt	3,099
Total Equity	841,436.50
Total Capital	844,535.50
Debt Weighting	0.37
Equity Weighting	99.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	21,461.27	24,578	31,536	53,823	81,462	115,035.69	162,446.43	229,396.99	323,940.50	457,449.12
EBITDA	1,694.61	2,323	4,224	9,598	17,833	16,212.12	22,893.77	32,329.19	45,653.32	64,468.85
EBIT	-206.44	169	1,902	6,687	14,086	8,161.19	11,524.74	16,274.54	22,981.92	32,453.67
Tax Rate	2.85%	-16.54%	40.21%	12.99%	8.28%	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%	9.56%
EBIAT	-200.55	196.95	1,137.24	5,818.31	12,919.61	7,381.15	10,423.21	14,719.03	20,785.32	29,351.77
Depreciation	1,901.05	2,154	2,322	2,911	3,747	8,050.92	11,369.03	16,054.65	22,671.40	32,015.18
Accounts Receivable	-	-374.98	-562	-27	-1,039	-2,332.15	-2,177.81	-3,075.37	-4,342.85	-6,132.70
Inventories	-	-438.55	-549	-1,656	-7,082	-2,902.55	-6,487.71	-9,161.56	-12,937.39	-18,269.40
Accounts Payable	-	366.55	2,280	3,974	5,230	4,932.89	8,320.22	11,749.32	16,591.67	23,429.75
Capital Expenditure	-2,319.52	-1,437	-3,242	-8,014	-7,172	-11,648.19	-16,448.86	-23,228.08	-32,801.29	-46,319.99
UFCF	-619.02	466.97	1,386.24	3,006.31	6,603.61	3,482.08	4,998.08	7,057.99	9,966.87	14,074.60
WACC
PV UFCF						3,041.91	3,814.35	4,705.50	5,804.86	7,161.07
SUM PV UFCF										24,527.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	14.47
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14,356.10
Terminal Value	115,125.07
Present Value of Terminal Value	58,574.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	83,102.58
Net Debt	-19,086
Equity Value	102,188.58
Shares Outstanding	3,475
Equity Value Per Share	29.41