Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
$42.31
+0.28 (+0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 41,303 | 43,259 | 15,355 | 24,634 | 44,955 | 54,300.33 | 65,588.38 | 79,223.02 | 95,692.05 | 115,584.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,181 | 6,909 | -4,093 | 2,067 | 6,066 | 2,841.51 | 3,432.21 | 4,145.71 | 5,007.52 | 6,048.50 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,177 | -4,528 | -1,767 | -2,107 | -4,819 | -5,577.81 | -6,737.34 | -8,137.90 | -9,829.63 | -11,873.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,004 | 2,381 | -5,860 | -40 | 1,247 | -2,736.30 | -3,305.12 | -3,992.20 | -4,822.10 | -5,824.53 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 42.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.416 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 323.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.223 |
| Total Debt | 36,433 |
| Total Equity | 13,700.44 |
| Total Capital | 50,133.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 72.67 |
| Equity Weighting | 27.33 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 41,303 | 43,259 | 15,355 | 24,634 | 44,955 | 54,300.33 | 65,588.38 | 79,223.02 | 95,692.05 | 115,584.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,181 | 6,909 | -4,093 | 2,067 | 6,066 | 2,841.51 | 3,432.21 | 4,145.71 | 5,007.52 | 6,048.50 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,177 | -4,528 | -1,767 | -2,107 | -4,819 | -5,577.81 | -6,737.34 | -8,137.90 | -9,829.63 | -11,873.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,004 | 2,381 | -5,860 | -40 | 1,247 | -2,736.30 | -3,305.12 | -3,992.20 | -4,822.10 | -5,824.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -2,592.42 | -2,966.68 | -3,394.98 | -3,885.11 | -4,446 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -17,285.20 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.55 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5,941.02 |
| Terminal Value | -167,352.78 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -127,744.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -145,029.57 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 29,267 |
| Equity Value | -174,296.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 323.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -538.27 |