Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
$42.31
+0.28 (+0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 41,303 | 43,259 | 15,355 | 24,634 | 44,955 | 54,300.33 | 65,588.38 | 79,223.02 | 95,692.05 | 115,584.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 6,181 | 6,909 | -4,093 | 2,067 | 6,066 | 2,841.51 | 3,432.21 | 4,145.71 | 5,007.52 | 6,048.50 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,177 | -4,528 | -1,767 | -2,107 | -4,819 | -5,577.81 | -6,737.34 | -8,137.90 | -9,829.63 | -11,873.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 2,004 | 2,381 | -5,860 | -40 | 1,247 | -2,736.30 | -3,305.12 | -3,992.20 | -4,822.10 | -5,824.53 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 42.31 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.416 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 323.81 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.56 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.42% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.282 |
Total Debt | 36,433 |
Total Equity | 13,700.44 |
Total Capital | 50,133.44 |
Debt Weighting | 72.67 |
Equity Weighting | 27.33 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 41,303 | 43,259 | 15,355 | 24,634 | 44,955 | 54,300.33 | 65,588.38 | 79,223.02 | 95,692.05 | 115,584.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 6,181 | 6,909 | -4,093 | 2,067 | 6,066 | 2,841.51 | 3,432.21 | 4,145.71 | 5,007.52 | 6,048.50 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,177 | -4,528 | -1,767 | -2,107 | -4,819 | -5,577.81 | -6,737.34 | -8,137.90 | -9,829.63 | -11,873.03 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,004 | 2,381 | -5,860 | -40 | 1,247 | -2,736.30 | -3,305.12 | -3,992.20 | -4,822.10 | -5,824.53 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | -2,591.93 | -2,965.56 | -3,393.05 | -3,882.17 | -4,441.79 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | -17,274.50 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.57 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5,941.02 |
Terminal Value | -166,415.23 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -126,908.43 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -144,182.93 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 29,267 |
Equity Value | -173,449.93 |
Shares Outstanding | 323.81 |
Equity Value Per Share | -535.65 |