Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
UBS Group AG (UBS)
$21.34
+0.83 (+4.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,004 | 28,976 | 32,289 | 35,059 | 34,454 | 35,734.01 | 37,061.57 | 38,438.46 | 39,866.49 | 41,347.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 28,913 | 19,705 | 36,958 | 31,425 | 14,647 | 29,371.55 | 30,462.74 | 31,594.47 | 32,768.25 | 33,985.63 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,688 | -1,584 | -1,854 | -1,841 | -1,643 | -1,919.22 | -1,990.52 | -2,064.47 | -2,141.17 | -2,220.71 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27,225 | 18,121 | 35,104 | 29,584 | 13,004 | 27,452.33 | 28,472.22 | 29,530 | 30,627.08 | 31,764.91 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.116 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,627.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.760 |
| Total Debt | 188,259 |
| Total Equity | 77,405.33 |
| Total Capital | 265,664.33 |
| Debt Weighting | 70.86 |
| Equity Weighting | 29.14 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,004 | 28,976 | 32,289 | 35,059 | 34,454 | 35,734.01 | 37,061.57 | 38,438.46 | 39,866.49 | 41,347.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 28,913 | 19,705 | 36,958 | 31,425 | 14,647 | 29,371.55 | 30,462.74 | 31,594.47 | 32,768.25 | 33,985.63 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,688 | -1,584 | -1,854 | -1,841 | -1,643 | -1,919.22 | -1,990.52 | -2,064.47 | -2,141.17 | -2,220.71 |
| Free Cash Flow | 27,225 | 18,121 | 35,104 | 29,584 | 13,004 | 27,452.33 | 28,472.22 | 29,530 | 30,627.08 | 31,764.91 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 26,265.15 | 26,062.89 | 25,862.19 | 25,663.03 | 25,465.41 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 129,318.67 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.52 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 32,400.21 |
| Terminal Value | 1,285,722.65 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,030,742.75 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,160,061.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 18,814 |
| Equity Value | 1,141,247.42 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,627.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 314.63 |