Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

UBS Group AG (UBS)

$19.07

+0.87 (+4.78%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 165.78 | 19.07 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	30,004	28,976	32,289	35,059	34,454	35,734.01	37,061.57	38,438.46	39,866.49	41,347.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	17,652	18,297	15,400	14,833	18,196	18,924.22	19,627.28	20,356.46	21,112.73	21,897.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	16,359	16,467	13,274	12,715	16,193.32	16,847.14	17,473.03	18,122.17	18,795.44	19,493.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,293	1,830	2,126	2,118	2,002.68	2,077.09	2,154.25	2,234.29	2,317.29	2,403.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	117,399	115,293	168,521	203,642	171,684	170,825.58	177,171.96	183,754.12	190,580.82	197,661.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	20,602	22,207	29,144	26,325	17,576	25,847.41	26,807.67	27,803.61	28,836.55	29,907.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	39,964	38,795	40,097	45,139	45,085	46,516.46	48,244.61	50,036.95	51,895.89	53,823.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,688	-1,584	-1,854	-1,841	-1,902.34	-1,973.01	-2,046.31	-2,122.34	-2,201.18	-2,282.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 19.07
Beta	1.116
Diluted Shares Outstanding	3,627.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.56
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.762
Total Debt	188,259
Total Equity	69,171.49
Total Capital	257,430.49
Debt Weighting	73.13
Equity Weighting	26.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	30,004	28,976	32,289	35,059	34,454	35,734.01	37,061.57	38,438.46	39,866.49	41,347.58
EBITDA	17,652	18,297	15,400	14,833	18,196	18,924.22	19,627.28	20,356.46	21,112.73	21,897.09
EBIT	16,359	16,467	13,274	12,715	16,193.32	16,847.14	17,473.03	18,122.17	18,795.44	19,493.71
Tax Rate	24.64%	22.83%	19.60%	21.37%	20.56%	21.80%	21.80%	21.80%	21.80%	21.80%
EBIAT	12,328.64	12,708.26	10,672.91	9,997.44	12,863.27	13,174.62	13,664.07	14,171.71	14,698.21	15,244.26
Depreciation	1,293	1,830	2,126	2,118	2,002.68	2,077.09	2,154.25	2,234.29	2,317.29	2,403.38
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,605	-6,937	2,819	8,749	-8,271.41	-960.26	-995.94	-1,032.94	-1,071.31
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-1,169	1,302	5,042	-54	1,431.46	1,728.14	1,792.35	1,858.94	1,928
Capital Expenditure	-1,688	-1,584	-1,854	-1,841	-1,902.34	-1,973.01	-2,046.31	-2,122.34	-2,201.18	-2,282.96
UFCF	11,933.64	10,180.26	5,309.91	18,135.44	21,658.61	6,438.75	14,539.89	15,080.07	15,640.31	16,221.37
WACC
PV UFCF						6,168.56	13,345.25	13,260.24	13,175.78	13,091.85
SUM PV UFCF										59,041.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.38
Free cash flow (t + 1)	16,545.79
Terminal Value	695,201.47
Present Value of Terminal Value	561,079.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	620,120.94
Net Debt	18,814
Equity Value	601,306.94
Shares Outstanding	3,627.24
Equity Value Per Share	165.78