Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
UBS Group AG (UBS)
$21.32
-0.38 (-1.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,004 | 28,976 | 32,289 | 35,059 | 34,454 | 35,734.01 | 37,061.57 | 38,438.46 | 39,866.49 | 41,347.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 28,913 | 19,705 | 36,958 | 31,425 | 31,737.56 | 32,916.65 | 34,139.55 | 35,407.87 | 36,723.32 | 38,087.64 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,688 | -1,584 | -1,854 | -1,841 | -1,902.34 | -1,973.01 | -2,046.31 | -2,122.34 | -2,201.18 | -2,282.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27,225 | 18,121 | 35,104 | 29,584 | 29,835.22 | 30,943.64 | 32,093.23 | 33,285.54 | 34,522.14 | 35,804.68 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.32 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.105 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,627.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.839 |
| Total Debt | 188,259 |
| Total Equity | 77,332.79 |
| Total Capital | 265,591.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 70.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 29.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30,004 | 28,976 | 32,289 | 35,059 | 34,454 | 35,734.01 | 37,061.57 | 38,438.46 | 39,866.49 | 41,347.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 28,913 | 19,705 | 36,958 | 31,425 | 31,737.56 | 32,916.65 | 34,139.55 | 35,407.87 | 36,723.32 | 38,087.64 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,688 | -1,584 | -1,854 | -1,841 | -1,902.34 | -1,973.01 | -2,046.31 | -2,122.34 | -2,201.18 | -2,282.96 |
| Free Cash Flow | 27,225 | 18,121 | 35,104 | 29,584 | 29,835.22 | 30,943.64 | 32,093.23 | 33,285.54 | 34,522.14 | 35,804.68 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 29,599.81 | 29,366.25 | 29,134.54 | 28,904.65 | 28,676.58 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 145,681.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.54 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 36,520.77 |
| Terminal Value | 1,437,825.65 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,151,579.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,297,260.85 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 18,814 |
| Equity Value | 1,278,446.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,627.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 352.46 |