Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

UBS Group AG (UBS)

$21.32

-0.38 (-1.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 352.46 | 21.32 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 30,00428,97632,28935,05934,45435,734.0137,061.5738,438.4639,866.4941,347.58
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 28,91319,70536,95831,42531,737.5632,916.6534,139.5535,407.8736,723.3238,087.64
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,688-1,584-1,854-1,841-1,902.34-1,973.01-2,046.31-2,122.34-2,201.18-2,282.96
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 27,22518,12135,10429,58429,835.2230,943.6432,093.2333,285.5434,522.1435,804.68

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.32
Beta 1.105
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,627.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.56
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.839
Total Debt 188,259
Total Equity 77,332.79
Total Capital 265,591.79
Debt Weighting 70.88
Equity Weighting 29.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 30,00428,97632,28935,05934,45435,734.0137,061.5738,438.4639,866.4941,347.58
Operating Cash Flow 28,91319,70536,95831,42531,737.5632,916.6534,139.5535,407.8736,723.3238,087.64
Capital Expenditure -1,688-1,584-1,854-1,841-1,902.34-1,973.01-2,046.31-2,122.34-2,201.18-2,282.96
Free Cash Flow 27,22518,12135,10429,58429,835.2230,943.6432,093.2333,285.5434,522.1435,804.68
WACC
PV LFCF 29,599.8129,366.2529,134.5428,904.6528,676.58
SUM PV LFCF 145,681.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 36,520.77
Terminal Value 1,437,825.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,151,579.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,297,260.85
Net Debt 18,814
Equity Value 1,278,446.85
Shares Outstanding 3,627.24
Equity Value Per Share 352.46