Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

$382.85

-2.63 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 286.54 | 382.85 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,884.516,716.617,398.076,151.958,630.899,660.9410,813.9212,104.5013,549.1015,166.11
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 779.37956.131,101.29810.351,059.271,310.241,466.611,641.641,837.562,056.86
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -440.71-319.40-298.53-151.87-172.19-400.81-448.64-502.18-562.12-629.20
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 338.65636.73802.76658.49887.08909.431,017.971,139.461,275.441,427.66

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 382.85
Beta 1.536
Diluted Shares Outstanding 54.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.140
Total Debt 1,846.76
Total Equity 20,995.88
Total Capital 22,842.63
Debt Weighting 8.08
Equity Weighting 91.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,884.516,716.617,398.076,151.958,630.899,660.9410,813.9212,104.5013,549.1015,166.11
Operating Cash Flow 779.37956.131,101.29810.351,059.271,310.241,466.611,641.641,837.562,056.86
Capital Expenditure -440.71-319.40-298.53-151.87-172.19-400.81-448.64-502.18-562.12-629.20
Free Cash Flow 338.65636.73802.76658.49887.08909.431,017.971,139.461,275.441,427.66
WACC
PV LFCF 761.12779.39798.10817.26836.88
SUM PV LFCF 4,364.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,456.21
Terminal Value 19,920.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,764.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,129.11
Net Debt 1,415.20
Equity Value 15,713.92
Shares Outstanding 54.84
Equity Value Per Share 286.54