Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

$382.85

-2.63 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 207.34 | 382.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,884.516,716.617,398.076,151.958,630.899,660.9410,813.9212,104.5013,549.1015,166.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,039.571,138.611,206.81523.121,562.631,498.201,677.011,877.152,101.172,351.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 786.86859.14911.21225.351,294.171,1041,235.761,383.241,548.321,733.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 252.71279.47295.60297.77268.46394.20441.25493.91552.85618.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 397.45409.25502.321,046.05431.56804.58900.601,008.081,128.391,263.06
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 99.72136.17139.34193.11233.68221.27247.68277.24310.32347.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,096.421,214.331,293.701,168.221,499.221,749.761,958.592,192.332,453.982,746.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 325.76404.02414.01477.05552.73604.89677.08757.88848.33949.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -440.71-319.40-298.53-151.87-172.19-400.81-448.64-502.18-562.12-629.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 382.85
Beta 1.536
Diluted Shares Outstanding 54.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.140
Total Debt 1,846.76
Total Equity 20,995.88
Total Capital 22,842.63
Debt Weighting 8.08
Equity Weighting 91.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,884.516,716.617,398.076,151.958,630.899,660.9410,813.9212,104.5013,549.1015,166.11
EBITDA 1,039.571,138.611,206.81523.121,562.631,498.201,677.011,877.152,101.172,351.94
EBIT 786.86859.14911.21225.351,294.171,1041,235.761,383.241,548.321,733.11
Tax Rate 29.44%23.35%22.09%23.91%23.92%24.54%24.54%24.54%24.54%24.54%
EBIAT 555.23658.56709.88171.47984.57833.06932.481,043.771,168.341,307.77
Depreciation 252.71279.47295.60297.77268.46394.20441.25493.91552.85618.83
Accounts Receivable --36.45-3.17-53.77-40.5712.41-26.41-29.56-33.09-37.04
Inventories --117.91-79.37125.49-331-250.54-208.82-233.75-261.64-292.87
Accounts Payable -78.269.9963.0475.6852.1672.1980.8190.45101.24
Capital Expenditure -440.71-319.40-298.53-151.87-172.19-400.81-448.64-502.18-562.12-629.20
UFCF 367.23542.53634.40452.13784.95640.48762.05852.99954.791,068.74
WACC
PV UFCF 585.93637.77653.08668.76684.82
SUM PV UFCF 3,230.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,090.12
Terminal Value 14,912.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,555.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,785.92
Net Debt 1,415.20
Equity Value 11,370.72
Shares Outstanding 54.84
Equity Value Per Share 207.34