Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Vector Group Ltd. (VGR)

$10.65

+0.12 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.11 | 10.65 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,807.481,870.261,903.712,002.671,220.701,133.461,052.46977.25907.41842.56
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 131.59181.83124.07267.55112.55104.5097.0390.1083.6677.68
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.87-17.68-12.58-19.06-13.51-10.80-10.03-9.31-8.64-8.03
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 111.72164.15111.50248.4899.0493.7087.0180.7975.0269.66

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.65
Beta 0.974
Diluted Shares Outstanding 154.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.362
Total Debt 1,411.36
Total Equity 1,649.65
Total Capital 3,061.01
Debt Weighting 46.11
Equity Weighting 53.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,807.481,870.261,903.712,002.671,220.701,133.461,052.46977.25907.41842.56
Operating Cash Flow 131.59181.83124.07267.55112.55104.5097.0390.1083.6677.68
Capital Expenditure -19.87-17.68-12.58-19.06-13.51-10.80-10.03-9.31-8.64-8.03
Free Cash Flow 111.72164.15111.50248.4899.0493.7087.0180.7975.0269.66
WACC
PV LFCF 87.0575.0864.7655.8648.18
SUM PV LFCF 330.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 71.05
Terminal Value 1,257.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 869.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,200.76
Net Debt 1,217.95
Equity Value -17.19
Shares Outstanding 154.90
Equity Value Per Share -0.11