Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vector Group Ltd. (VGR)

$10.65

+0.12 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6.49 | 10.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,807.481,870.261,903.712,002.671,220.701,133.461,052.46977.25907.41842.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 275.29302.24290.09273.88395210.06195.05181.11168.17156.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 256.68283.44272.23256.26383.24199.14184.91171.70159.43148.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18.6118.8117.8517.6311.7610.9210.149.418.748.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 451.84716.15500.98488.43340.10321.58298.59277.26257.44239.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 40.7034.2536.9640.7116.0721.2519.7318.3217.0115.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 89.799198.7697.5594.6262.6658.1954.0350.1746.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.5513.1410.2212.858.878.247.657.106.606.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.87-17.68-12.58-19.06-13.51-10.80-10.03-9.31-8.64-8.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.65
Beta 0.974
Diluted Shares Outstanding 154.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.362
Total Debt 1,411.36
Total Equity 1,649.65
Total Capital 3,061.01
Debt Weighting 46.11
Equity Weighting 53.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,807.481,870.261,903.712,002.671,220.701,133.461,052.46977.25907.41842.56
EBITDA 275.29302.24290.09273.88395210.06195.05181.11168.17156.15
EBIT 256.68283.44272.23256.26383.24199.14184.91171.70159.43148.03
Tax Rate 5.15%26.97%24.55%31.01%-4.53%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%
EBIAT 243.45207205.40176.79400.58166.02154.16143.14132.91123.41
Depreciation 18.6118.8117.8517.6311.7610.9210.149.418.748.12
Accounts Receivable -6.45-2.71-3.7524.64-5.181.521.411.311.22
Inventories --1.21-7.761.222.9331.954.484.163.863.59
Accounts Payable --5.41-2.922.62-3.97-0.63-0.59-0.55-0.51-0.47
Capital Expenditure -19.87-17.68-12.57-19.06-13.51-10.80-10.03-9.31-8.64-8.03
UFCF 242.19207.97197.28175.44422.44192.28159.68148.27137.67127.83
WACC
PV UFCF 178.61137.79118.85102.5188.42
SUM PV UFCF 626.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 130.39
Terminal Value 2,307.75
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,596.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,222.51
Net Debt 1,217.95
Equity Value 1,004.56
Shares Outstanding 154.90
Equity Value Per Share 6.49