Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
$15.92
+0.30 (+1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,683.15 | 1,659.23 | 1,752.96 | 1,851.99 | 1,956.61 | 2,067.14 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -496.41 | -597.95 | -631.73 | -667.41 | -705.12 | -744.95 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 1,186.74 | 1,061.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,184.58 | 1,251.49 | 1,322.19 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 15.92 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.594 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.02 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.51% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.401 |
Total Debt | 585.09 |
Total Equity | 11,044.10 |
Total Capital | 11,629.19 |
Debt Weighting | 5.03 |
Equity Weighting | 94.97 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,683.15 | 1,659.23 | 1,752.96 | 1,851.99 | 1,956.61 | 2,067.14 |
Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -496.41 | -597.95 | -631.73 | -667.41 | -705.12 | -744.95 |
Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 1,186.74 | 1,061.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,184.58 | 1,251.49 | 1,322.19 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 991.39 | 978.42 | 965.61 | 952.98 | 940.51 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 4,828.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,348.64 |
Terminal Value | 26,705.70 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 18,996.37 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 23,825.27 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -2,925.10 |
Equity Value | 26,750.36 |
Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
Equity Value Per Share | 38.56 |