Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
$14.83
+0.33 (+2.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,683.15 | 1,659.23 | 1,752.96 | 1,851.99 | 1,956.61 | 2,067.14 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -496.41 | -597.95 | -631.73 | -667.41 | -705.12 | -744.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 1,186.74 | 1,061.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,184.58 | 1,251.49 | 1,322.19 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 14.83 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.594 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.51% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.242 |
| Total Debt | 585.09 |
| Total Equity | 10,287.94 |
| Total Capital | 10,873.03 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,683.15 | 1,659.23 | 1,752.96 | 1,851.99 | 1,956.61 | 2,067.14 |
| Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -496.41 | -597.95 | -631.73 | -667.41 | -705.12 | -744.95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 1,186.74 | 1,061.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,184.58 | 1,251.49 | 1,322.19 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 992.97 | 981.53 | 970.23 | 959.05 | 948.01 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 4,851.79 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.88 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,348.64 |
| Terminal Value | 27,636.02 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 19,814.96 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 24,666.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -2,925.10 |
| Equity Value | 27,591.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 39.77 |