Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)

$14.83

+0.33 (+2.28%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 10.69 | 14.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,523.83	14,879.11	16,297.36	18,729.55	16,504.40	17,436.76	18,421.79	19,462.46	20,561.93	21,723.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	426.24	842.99	1,009.46	1,000.62	1,113.83	945.16	998.55	1,054.96	1,114.56	1,177.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	283.88	690.91	827.17	799.10	887.69	748.49	790.78	835.45	882.64	932.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	142.36	152.08	182.28	201.52	226.14	196.67	207.78	219.51	231.91	245.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,897.89	1,540.25	3,091.86	3,468.64	3,765.53	2,953.50	3,120.35	3,296.63	3,482.86	3,679.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,535.65	727.64	477.07	547.83	563.08	889.60	939.86	992.95	1,049.05	1,108.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	858.90	1,233.33	1,222.80	1,098.42	882.54	1,163.20	1,228.92	1,298.34	1,371.68	1,449.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,860.83	2,206.75	2,430.61	2,103.19	2,402.90	2,416.50	2,553.02	2,697.24	2,849.61	3,010.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-574.89	-684.43	-363.50	-572.58	-496.41	-597.95	-631.73	-667.41	-705.12	-744.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 14.83
Beta	0.594
Diluted Shares Outstanding	693.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.02
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.242
Total Debt	585.09
Total Equity	10,287.94
Total Capital	10,873.03
Debt Weighting	5.38
Equity Weighting	94.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,523.83	14,879.11	16,297.36	18,729.55	16,504.40	17,436.76	18,421.79	19,462.46	20,561.93	21,723.50
EBITDA	426.24	842.99	1,009.46	1,000.62	1,113.83	945.16	998.55	1,054.96	1,114.56	1,177.52
EBIT	283.88	690.91	827.17	799.10	887.69	748.49	790.78	835.45	882.64	932.51
Tax Rate	22.51%	18.73%	15.85%	20.30%	22.02%	19.88%	19.88%	19.88%	19.88%	19.88%
EBIAT	219.99	561.47	696.08	636.89	692.24	599.69	633.56	669.35	707.17	747.12
Depreciation	142.36	152.08	182.28	201.52	226.14	196.67	207.78	219.51	231.91	245.02
Accounts Receivable	-	808.01	250.57	-70.76	-15.25	-326.52	-50.26	-53.09	-56.09	-59.26
Inventories	-	-374.43	10.53	124.38	215.88	-280.66	-65.71	-69.42	-73.35	-77.49
Accounts Payable	-	345.92	223.86	-327.42	299.71	13.60	136.51	144.22	152.37	160.98
Capital Expenditure	-574.89	-684.43	-363.50	-572.58	-496.41	-597.95	-631.73	-667.41	-705.12	-744.95
UFCF	-212.54	808.63	999.82	-7.97	922.32	-395.18	230.16	243.16	256.90	271.41
WACC
PV UFCF						-369.74	201.48	199.16	196.87	194.60
SUM PV UFCF										422.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.88
Free cash flow (t + 1)	276.84
Terminal Value	5,672.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,067.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,489.83
Net Debt	-2,925.10
Equity Value	7,414.93
Shares Outstanding	693.73
Equity Value Per Share	10.69