Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. (XOG)
$64.92
+0.53 (+0.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 278.09 | 604.30 | 1,060.74 | 906.64 | 557.90 | 752.95 | 1,016.19 | 1,371.46 | 1,850.94 | 2,498.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 116.39 | 316.97 | 684.93 | 557.96 | 265.97 | 403.72 | 544.87 | 735.36 | 992.44 | 1,339.41 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -876.26 | -1,410.20 | -1,055.80 | -877.46 | -253.68 | -1,190.04 | -1,606.09 | -2,167.60 | -2,925.42 | -3,948.17 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -759.88 | -1,093.24 | -370.86 | -319.50 | 12.29 | -786.32 | -1,061.23 | -1,432.25 | -1,932.97 | -2,608.76 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.92 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.794 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 138.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.724 |
| Total Debt | 569.11 |
| Total Equity | 8,968.63 |
| Total Capital | 9,537.74 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.97 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.03 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 278.09 | 604.30 | 1,060.74 | 906.64 | 557.90 | 752.95 | 1,016.19 | 1,371.46 | 1,850.94 | 2,498.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 116.39 | 316.97 | 684.93 | 557.96 | 265.97 | 403.72 | 544.87 | 735.36 | 992.44 | 1,339.41 |
| Capital Expenditure | -876.26 | -1,410.20 | -1,055.80 | -877.46 | -253.68 | -1,190.04 | -1,606.09 | -2,167.60 | -2,925.42 | -3,948.17 |
| Free Cash Flow | -759.88 | -1,093.24 | -370.86 | -319.50 | 12.29 | -786.32 | -1,061.23 | -1,432.25 | -1,932.97 | -2,608.76 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -698.27 | -836.86 | -1,002.97 | -1,202.04 | -1,440.62 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -5,180.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.61 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,660.94 |
| Terminal Value | -25,079.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -13,849.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -19,030.26 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 363.22 |
| Equity Value | -19,393.48 |
| Shares Outstanding | 138.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -140.38 |