Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. (XOG)

$64.92

+0.53 (+-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -149.61 | 64.92 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 278.09604.301,060.74906.64557.90752.951,016.191,371.461,850.942,498.05
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 116.39316.97684.93557.96265.97403.72544.87735.36992.441,339.41
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -876.26-1,410.20-1,055.80-877.46-253.68-1,190.04-1,606.09-2,167.60-2,925.42-3,948.17
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -759.88-1,093.24-370.86-319.5012.29-786.32-1,061.23-1,432.25-1,932.97-2,608.76

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.92
Beta 1.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding 138.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.103
Total Debt 569.11
Total Equity 8,968.63
Total Capital 9,537.74
Debt Weighting 5.97
Equity Weighting 94.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 278.09604.301,060.74906.64557.90752.951,016.191,371.461,850.942,498.05
Operating Cash Flow 116.39316.97684.93557.96265.97403.72544.87735.36992.441,339.41
Capital Expenditure -876.26-1,410.20-1,055.80-877.46-253.68-1,190.04-1,606.09-2,167.60-2,925.42-3,948.17
Free Cash Flow -759.88-1,093.24-370.86-319.5012.29-786.32-1,061.23-1,432.25-1,932.97-2,608.76
WACC
PV LFCF -701.89-845.55-1,018.63-1,227.12-1,478.30
SUM PV LFCF -5,271.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,660.94
Terminal Value -26,529.77
Present Value of Terminal Value -15,033.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -20,305.04
Net Debt 363.22
Equity Value -20,668.26
Shares Outstanding 138.15
Equity Value Per Share -149.61