Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)
$28.66
+0.23 (+0.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 5,660.32 | 6,743.88 | 8,034.87 | 9,572.99 | 11,405.56 | 13,588.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,836.69 | 1,744.76 | 2,078.76 | 2,476.71 | 2,950.82 | 3,515.70 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,342.27 | -1,561.72 | -1,860.69 | -2,216.88 | -2,641.26 | -3,146.88 | -3,749.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -187.04 | 274.96 | -115.92 | -138.12 | -164.56 | -196.06 | -233.59 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 28.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.014 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.83 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.559 |
| Total Debt | 2,099.75 |
| Total Equity | 22,817.59 |
| Total Capital | 24,917.34 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 5,660.32 | 6,743.88 | 8,034.87 | 9,572.99 | 11,405.56 | 13,588.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,836.69 | 1,744.76 | 2,078.76 | 2,476.71 | 2,950.82 | 3,515.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,342.27 | -1,561.72 | -1,860.69 | -2,216.88 | -2,641.26 | -3,146.88 | -3,749.29 |
| Free Cash Flow | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -187.04 | 274.96 | -115.92 | -138.12 | -164.56 | -196.06 | -233.59 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -112.16 | -129.28 | -149.02 | -171.78 | -198.01 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -760.26 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -238.26 |
| Terminal Value | -17,519.19 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,850.86 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -15,611.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 228.91 |
| Equity Value | -15,840.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -19.90 |