Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)
$28.66
+0.23 (+0.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 5,660.32 | 6,743.88 | 8,034.87 | 9,572.99 | 11,405.56 | 13,588.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,836.69 | 1,744.76 | 2,078.76 | 2,476.71 | 2,950.82 | 3,515.70 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,342.27 | -1,561.72 | -1,860.69 | -2,216.88 | -2,641.26 | -3,146.88 | -3,749.29 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -187.04 | 274.96 | -115.92 | -138.12 | -164.56 | -196.06 | -233.59 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 28.66 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.014 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.83 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.19% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 3.559 |
Total Debt | 2,099.75 |
Total Equity | 22,817.59 |
Total Capital | 24,917.34 |
Debt Weighting | 8.43 |
Equity Weighting | 91.57 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 5,660.32 | 6,743.88 | 8,034.87 | 9,572.99 | 11,405.56 | 13,588.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,836.69 | 1,744.76 | 2,078.76 | 2,476.71 | 2,950.82 | 3,515.70 |
Capital Expenditure | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,342.27 | -1,561.72 | -1,860.69 | -2,216.88 | -2,641.26 | -3,146.88 | -3,749.29 |
Free Cash Flow | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -187.04 | 274.96 | -115.92 | -138.12 | -164.56 | -196.06 | -233.59 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | -112.16 | -129.28 | -149.02 | -171.78 | -198.01 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | -760.26 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 3.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -238.26 |
Terminal Value | -17,519.19 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,850.86 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -15,611.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 228.91 |
Equity Value | -15,840.02 |
Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
Equity Value Per Share | -19.90 |