Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

$28.51

-0.03 (-0.11%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -45.74 | 28.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,816.71	3,537.59	4,034.29	4,864.93	5,660.32	6,743.88	8,034.87	9,572.99	11,405.56	13,588.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	986.66	1,282.72	1,100.45	941.88	1,318.43	1,904.73	2,269.36	2,703.78	3,221.37	3,838.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	850.07	1,080.39	805.98	652.13	981.30	1,503.06	1,790.80	2,133.61	2,542.05	3,028.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	136.59	202.33	294.47	289.76	337.13	401.67	478.56	570.17	679.32	809.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,915.58	2,621.35	2,864.51	2,010.65	2,791.40	4,575.84	5,451.80	6,495.44	7,738.87	9,220.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	357.56	447.55	493.09	348.62	333.57	682.85	813.57	969.31	1,154.86	1,375.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	7.01	7.02	8.49	13.27	6.49	14.10	16.79	20.01	23.84	28.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	209.89	236.04	261.74	313.20	352.43	448.82	534.74	637.11	759.07	904.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-637	-836.23	-1,473.27	-1,342.27	-1,561.72	-1,860.69	-2,216.88	-2,641.26	-3,146.88	-3,749.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28.51
Beta	0.014
Diluted Shares Outstanding	796.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.83
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	3.445
Total Debt	2,099.75
Total Equity	22,698.17
Total Capital	24,797.92
Debt Weighting	8.47
Equity Weighting	91.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,816.71	3,537.59	4,034.29	4,864.93	5,660.32	6,743.88	8,034.87	9,572.99	11,405.56	13,588.95
EBITDA	986.66	1,282.72	1,100.45	941.88	1,318.43	1,904.73	2,269.36	2,703.78	3,221.37	3,838.04
EBIT	850.07	1,080.39	805.98	652.13	981.30	1,503.06	1,790.80	2,133.61	2,542.05	3,028.68
Tax Rate	17.87%	16.03%	14.35%	17.15%	17.83%	16.65%	16.65%	16.65%	16.65%	16.65%
EBIAT	698.20	907.23	690.31	540.28	806.34	1,252.88	1,492.72	1,778.47	2,118.92	2,524.55
Depreciation	136.59	202.33	294.47	289.76	337.13	401.67	478.56	570.17	679.32	809.37
Accounts Receivable	-	-89.98	-45.54	144.47	15.06	-349.28	-130.72	-155.74	-185.56	-221.08
Inventories	-	-0.01	-1.48	-4.78	6.79	-7.61	-2.70	-3.21	-3.83	-4.56
Accounts Payable	-	26.15	25.70	51.46	39.23	96.39	85.92	102.37	121.96	145.31
Capital Expenditure	-637	-836.23	-1,473.27	-1,342.27	-1,561.72	-1,860.69	-2,216.88	-2,641.26	-3,146.88	-3,749.29
UFCF	197.79	209.50	-509.81	-321.09	-357.18	-466.64	-293.10	-349.21	-416.06	-495.71
WACC
PV UFCF						-451.95	-274.94	-317.26	-366.10	-422.45
SUM PV UFCF										-1,832.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.25
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-505.62
Terminal Value	-40,449.57
Present Value of Terminal Value	-34,471.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-36,304.47
Net Debt	110.50
Equity Value	-36,414.97
Shares Outstanding	796.15
Equity Value Per Share	-45.74