Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)
$27.695
-0.98 (-3.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,089.61 | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 6,020.59 | 7,450.77 | 9,220.68 | 11,411.03 | 14,121.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 580.91 | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,501.66 | 1,858.37 | 2,299.83 | 2,846.15 | 3,522.24 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -452.28 | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,269.95 | -1,571.62 | -1,944.96 | -2,406.97 | -2,978.75 | -3,686.34 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.63 | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -114.71 | -69.96 | -86.58 | -107.15 | -132.60 | -164.10 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.695 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.032 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.15 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.36% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.468 |
| Total Debt | 710.52 |
| Total Equity | 22,049.31 |
| Total Capital | 22,759.82 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,089.61 | 2,816.71 | 3,537.59 | 4,034.29 | 4,864.93 | 6,020.59 | 7,450.77 | 9,220.68 | 11,411.03 | 14,121.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 580.91 | 704.65 | 1,008.67 | 792.12 | 1,155.23 | 1,501.66 | 1,858.37 | 2,299.83 | 2,846.15 | 3,522.24 |
| Capital Expenditure | -452.28 | -637 | -836.23 | -1,473.27 | -1,269.95 | -1,571.62 | -1,944.96 | -2,406.97 | -2,978.75 | -3,686.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 128.63 | 67.64 | 172.44 | -681.15 | -114.71 | -69.96 | -86.58 | -107.15 | -132.60 | -164.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -57.15 | -68.37 | -81.81 | -97.89 | -117.12 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -499.91 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -167.38 |
| Terminal Value | -11,704.97 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -9,888.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -10,388.58 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -844.88 |
| Equity Value | -9,543.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 796.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -11.99 |