Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

$27.695

-0.98 (-3.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -11.99 | 27.695 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,089.612,816.713,537.594,034.294,864.936,020.597,450.779,220.6811,411.0314,121.69
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 580.91704.651,008.67792.121,155.231,501.661,858.372,299.832,846.153,522.24
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -452.28-637-836.23-1,473.27-1,269.95-1,571.62-1,944.96-2,406.97-2,978.75-3,686.34
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 128.6367.64172.44-681.15-114.71-69.96-86.58-107.15-132.60-164.10

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.695
Beta -0.032
Diluted Shares Outstanding 796.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.468
Total Debt 710.52
Total Equity 22,049.31
Total Capital 22,759.82
Debt Weighting 3.12
Equity Weighting 96.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,089.612,816.713,537.594,034.294,864.936,020.597,450.779,220.6811,411.0314,121.69
Operating Cash Flow 580.91704.651,008.67792.121,155.231,501.661,858.372,299.832,846.153,522.24
Capital Expenditure -452.28-637-836.23-1,473.27-1,269.95-1,571.62-1,944.96-2,406.97-2,978.75-3,686.34
Free Cash Flow 128.6367.64172.44-681.15-114.71-69.96-86.58-107.15-132.60-164.10
WACC
PV LFCF -57.15-68.37-81.81-97.89-117.12
SUM PV LFCF -499.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) -167.38
Terminal Value -11,704.97
Present Value of Terminal Value -9,888.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -10,388.58
Net Debt -844.88
Equity Value -9,543.70
Shares Outstanding 796.15
Equity Value Per Share -11.99