Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AAIC)

$3.03

-0.07 (-2.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.94 | 3.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 75.61-77.6928.76-55.1025.53-24.1122.76-21.5020.30-19.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 108.55-6.24110.99-44.800.26-29.8928.22-26.6525.17-23.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------29.8928.22-26.6525.17-23.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 80.7287.7656.7635.1020.54-10.039.47-8.948.44-7.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.5513.3581.8611.5616.79-15.8614.97-14.1413.35-12.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.424.654.670.910.92-0.870.82-0.780.73-0.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.03
Beta 1.486
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -19.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 1,615.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.547
Total Debt 0.51
Total Equity 97.91
Total Capital 98.41
Debt Weighting 0.52
Equity Weighting 99.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 75.61-77.6928.76-55.1025.53-24.1122.76-21.5020.30-19.17
EBITDA 108.55-6.24110.99-44.800.26-29.8928.22-26.6525.17-23.76
EBIT ------29.8928.22-26.6525.17-23.76
Tax Rate 69.43%-0.80%0.00%0.00%-19.70%9.79%9.79%9.79%9.79%9.79%
EBIAT ------26.9625.46-24.0422.70-21.44
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --0.80-68.5170.30-5.2332.65-30.8329.11-27.4925.96
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.230.02-3.760.01-1.791.69-1.601.51-1.43
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----3.89-3.683.47-3.283.10
WACC
PV UFCF 3.28-2.602.07-1.641.31
SUM PV UFCF 2.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 18.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.16
Terminal Value 18.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 7.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10.32
Net Debt -20.04
Equity Value 30.36
Shares Outstanding 32.31
Equity Value Per Share 0.94