Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AAIC)
$3.03
-0.07 (-2.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 75.61 | -77.69 | 28.76 | -55.10 | 25.53 | -24.11 | 22.76 | -21.50 | 20.30 | -19.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 108.55 | -6.24 | 110.99 | -44.80 | 0.26 | -29.89 | 28.22 | -26.65 | 25.17 | -23.76 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -29.89 | 28.22 | -26.65 | 25.17 | -23.76 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 80.72 | 87.76 | 56.76 | 35.10 | 20.54 | -10.03 | 9.47 | -8.94 | 8.44 | -7.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.55 | 13.35 | 81.86 | 11.56 | 16.79 | -15.86 | 14.97 | -14.14 | 13.35 | -12.61 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.42 | 4.65 | 4.67 | 0.91 | 0.92 | -0.87 | 0.82 | -0.78 | 0.73 | -0.69 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.486 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 32.31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -19.70 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1,615.35% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.547 |
| Total Debt | 0.51 |
| Total Equity | 97.91 |
| Total Capital | 98.41 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.52 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.48 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 75.61 | -77.69 | 28.76 | -55.10 | 25.53 | -24.11 | 22.76 | -21.50 | 20.30 | -19.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 108.55 | -6.24 | 110.99 | -44.80 | 0.26 | -29.89 | 28.22 | -26.65 | 25.17 | -23.76 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -29.89 | 28.22 | -26.65 | 25.17 | -23.76 |
| Tax Rate | 69.43% | -0.80% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -19.70% | 9.79% | 9.79% | 9.79% | 9.79% | 9.79% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -26.96 | 25.46 | -24.04 | 22.70 | -21.44 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.80 | -68.51 | 70.30 | -5.23 | 32.65 | -30.83 | 29.11 | -27.49 | 25.96 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.23 | 0.02 | -3.76 | 0.01 | -1.79 | 1.69 | -1.60 | 1.51 | -1.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 3.89 | -3.68 | 3.47 | -3.28 | 3.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 3.28 | -2.60 | 2.07 | -1.64 | 1.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2.40 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 18.83 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.16 |
| Terminal Value | 18.76 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 10.32 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -20.04 |
| Equity Value | 30.36 |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.94 |