Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ambev S.A. (ABEV)

$2.57

+0.05 (+1.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.55 | 2.57 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47,899.3050,231.3052,599.7058,37972,854.3081,117.1290,317.06100,560.43111,965.55124,664.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17,896.2018,361.9019,034.9020,421.9020,136.1028,021.9931,200.1234,738.7038,678.6143,065.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14,284.1014,338.8014,359.7015,254.5014,739.4021,419.4723,848.7826,553.6029,565.1932,918.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,612.104,023.104,675.205,167.405,396.706,602.527,351.358,185.109,113.4210,147.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 10,366.4011,476.9011,915.3018,790.3018,542.3020,243.7422,539.6925,096.0527,942.3331,111.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,315.407,0288,569.607,590.207,404.2011,487.5112,790.3714,24115,856.1517,654.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4,108.105,097.405,650.307,224.5011,000.309,237.7310,285.4311,451.9612,750.7914,196.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11,85414,05015,069.6019,339.2025,077.9024,159.4226,899.4829,950.3033,347.1337,129.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,203.60-3,571-5,069.40-4,692.70-7,677.10-6,815.61-7,588.61-8,449.28-9,407.56-10,474.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.57
Beta 0.912
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15,857.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 42.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.428
Total Debt 3,100.50
Total Equity 40,753.52
Total Capital 43,854.02
Debt Weighting 7.07
Equity Weighting 92.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47,899.3050,231.3052,599.7058,37972,854.3081,117.1290,317.06100,560.43111,965.55124,664.19
EBITDA 17,896.2018,361.9019,034.9020,421.9020,136.1028,021.9931,200.1234,738.7038,678.6143,065.37
EBIT 14,284.1014,338.8014,359.7015,254.5014,739.4021,419.4723,848.7826,553.6029,565.1932,918.35
Tax Rate 43.29%16.27%8.99%15.67%7.91%18.43%18.43%18.43%18.43%18.43%
EBIAT 8,099.9712,005.8513,069.3012,863.6413,573.6817,472.6219,454.2921,660.7124,117.3726,852.66
Depreciation 3,612.104,023.104,675.205,167.405,396.706,602.527,351.358,185.109,113.4210,147.03
Accounts Receivable -1,287.40-1,541.60979.40186-4,083.31-1,302.86-1,450.63-1,615.15-1,798.34
Inventories --989.30-552.90-1,574.20-3,775.801,762.57-1,047.70-1,166.53-1,298.83-1,446.14
Accounts Payable -2,1961,019.604,269.605,738.70-918.482,740.063,050.823,396.833,782.09
Capital Expenditure -3,203.60-3,571-5,069.40-4,692.70-7,677.10-6,815.61-7,588.61-8,449.28-9,407.56-10,474.52
UFCF 8,508.4714,952.0511,600.2017,013.1413,442.1814,020.3119,606.5121,830.2024,306.0927,062.78
WACC
PV UFCF 12,756.1716,230.2816,441.6816,655.8316,872.77
SUM PV UFCF 78,956.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 27,604.03
Terminal Value 348,976.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 217,575.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 296,532.22
Net Debt -13,527.20
Equity Value 310,059.42
Shares Outstanding 15,857.40
Equity Value Per Share 19.55