Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO)

$19.64

-0.15 (-0.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 209.87 | 19.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,2439,71712,59511,98511,01312,412.2613,989.2915,766.7017,769.9420,027.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,7557,1057,1116,9255,3816,808.277,673.298,648.229,747.0210,985.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2985,0734,9034,8233,3844,469.055,036.865,676.826,398.097,211
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,4572,0322,2082,1021,9972,339.222,636.432,971.403,348.933,774.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,5713,3145,1885,2804,4404,502.105,074.125,718.816,445.417,264.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 430665766942906867.58977.811,102.051,242.071,399.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8522,2891,8781,7341,7812,350.302,648.922,985.483,364.803,792.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 744715929539741899.441,013.721,142.511,287.681,451.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,400-1,701-2,054-2,435-3,049-2,510.88-2,829.89-3,189.45-3,594.68-4,051.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.64
Beta 0.404
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,771
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.93%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.229
Total Debt 5,250
Total Equity 34,782.44
Total Capital 40,032.44
Debt Weighting 13.11
Equity Weighting 86.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,2439,71712,59511,98511,01312,412.2613,989.2915,766.7017,769.9420,027.70
EBITDA 2,7557,1057,1116,9255,3816,808.277,673.298,648.229,747.0210,985.43
EBIT 1,2985,0734,9034,8233,3844,469.055,036.865,676.826,398.097,211
Tax Rate -551.90%37.56%26.93%29.02%39.50%-83.78%-83.78%-83.78%-83.78%-83.78%
EBIAT 8,461.653,167.333,582.583,423.582,047.318,213.109,256.6210,432.7211,758.2513,252.19
Depreciation 1,4572,0322,2082,1021,9972,339.222,636.432,971.403,348.933,774.43
Accounts Receivable --235-101-1763638.42-110.23-124.24-140.02-157.81
Inventories --437411144-47-569.30-298.62-336.56-379.32-427.51
Accounts Payable --29214-390202158.44114.28128.80145.16163.61
Capital Expenditure -1,400-1,701-2,054-2,435-3,049-2,510.88-2,829.89-3,189.45-3,594.68-4,051.40
UFCF 8,518.652,797.334,260.582,668.581,186.317,6698,768.589,882.6811,138.3212,553.50
WACC
PV UFCF 7,239.697,814.338,314.158,845.949,411.74
SUM PV UFCF 41,625.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,930.10
Terminal Value 441,300.44
Present Value of Terminal Value 330,856.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 372,482.20
Net Debt 810
Equity Value 371,672.20
Shares Outstanding 1,771
Equity Value Per Share 209.87