Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Accor SA (AC.PA)
29.75 €
-0.22 (-0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,937 | 3,610 | 4,049 | 1,621 | 2,204 | 2,614.67 | 3,101.85 | 3,679.82 | 4,365.47 | 5,178.89 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 679 | 840 | 886 | -977 | -264 | 41.60 | 49.35 | 58.55 | 69.46 | 82.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 41.60 | 49.35 | 58.55 | 69.46 | 82.40 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,063 | 2,820 | 2,279 | 2,474 | 1,666 | 2,183.21 | 2,590 | 3,072.59 | 3,645.10 | 4,324.29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 8 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 9 | 15.83 | 18.77 | 22.27 | 26.42 | 31.35 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 398 | 426 | 441 | 327 | 441 | 436.24 | 517.52 | 613.95 | 728.35 | 864.06 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -518 | -2,925 | -319 | -175 | -82 | -680.66 | -807.49 | -957.95 | -1,136.44 | -1,348.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.75 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.314 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 261.62 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 254.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -4.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.680 |
| Total Debt | 3,527 |
| Total Equity | 7,783.22 |
| Total Capital | 11,310.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,937 | 3,610 | 4,049 | 1,621 | 2,204 | 2,614.67 | 3,101.85 | 3,679.82 | 4,365.47 | 5,178.89 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 679 | 840 | 886 | -977 | -264 | 41.60 | 49.35 | 58.55 | 69.46 | 82.40 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 41.60 | 49.35 | 58.55 | 69.46 | 82.40 |
| Tax Rate | -22.50% | -1,295.63% | 23.05% | 13.90% | 254.55% | -205.33% | -205.33% | -205.33% | -205.33% | -205.33% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 127.02 | 150.68 | 178.76 | 212.07 | 251.58 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -7 | -5 | -1 | 12 | -6.83 | -2.95 | -3.50 | -4.15 | -4.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 28 | 15 | -114 | 114 | -4.76 | 81.28 | 96.43 | 114.40 | 135.71 |
| Capital Expenditure | -518 | -2,925 | -319 | -175 | -82 | -680.66 | -807.49 | -957.95 | -1,136.44 | -1,348.19 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -565.23 | -578.47 | -686.26 | -814.12 | -965.82 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -536.27 | -520.71 | -586.09 | -659.67 | -742.49 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -3,045.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -985.14 |
| Terminal Value | -28,974.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -22,274.81 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -25,320.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,508 |
| Equity Value | -26,828.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 261.62 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -102.55 |