Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)

$60.85

-0.36 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 67.11 | 60.85 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,462.401,460.401,736.901,935.602,036.402,216.852,413.282,627.122,859.913,113.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 195.80163.50239.40263.30251.30285.14310.40337.91367.85400.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 130.1095.90153.60148.80149.60174.42189.88206.70225.02244.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 65.7067.6085.80114.50101.70110.71120.52131.20142.83155.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6.8099.40240.4095.8072.90131.42143.07155.74169.54184.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 165.30291.40200260.20310.80316.91344.99375.56408.83445.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 246.80252.50283.30276.80324.50357.85389.56424.08461.66502.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5686.2090144.10184.70139.34151.69165.13179.76195.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -82.40-44.80-85.40-82.10-85.10-97.72-106.38-115.80-126.06-137.23
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 60.85
Beta 0.523
Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.983
Total Debt 679.50
Total Equity 2,951.22
Total Capital 3,630.72
Debt Weighting 18.72
Equity Weighting 81.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,462.401,460.401,736.901,935.602,036.402,216.852,413.282,627.122,859.913,113.33
EBITDA 195.80163.50239.40263.30251.30285.14310.40337.91367.85400.44
EBIT 130.1095.90153.60148.80149.60174.42189.88206.70225.02244.96
Tax Rate 31.05%20.32%22.82%22.87%16.75%22.76%22.76%22.76%22.76%22.76%
EBIAT 89.7076.42118.55114.78124.55134.72146.66159.66173.80189.20
Depreciation 65.7067.6085.80114.50101.70110.71120.52131.20142.83155.49
Accounts Receivable --126.1091.40-60.20-50.60-6.11-28.08-30.57-33.28-36.23
Inventories --5.70-30.806.50-47.70-33.35-31.71-34.52-37.58-40.91
Accounts Payable -30.203.8054.1040.60-45.3612.3513.4414.6315.93
Capital Expenditure -82.40-44.80-85.40-82.10-85.10-97.72-106.38-115.80-126.06-137.23
UFCF 73-2.38183.35147.5883.4562.90113.37123.41134.35146.25
WACC
PV UFCF 59.68102.05105.40108.86112.43
SUM PV UFCF 488.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 149.18
Terminal Value 4,387.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,373.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,861.45
Net Debt 606.60
Equity Value 3,254.85
Shares Outstanding 48.50
Equity Value Per Share 67.11