Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)
$0.6642
-0.04 (-5.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 55.20 | 247.94 | 278.91 | 245.25 | 221.34 | 409.41 | 757.27 | 1,400.70 | 2,590.84 | 4,792.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -78.46 | -214.66 | -393.23 | -137.20 | -143.09 | -401.46 | -742.58 | -1,373.52 | -2,540.57 | -4,699.24 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -90.72 | -302.92 | -508.12 | -235.28 | -236.75 | -549.92 | -1,017.17 | -1,881.44 | -3,480.05 | -6,436.96 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.26 | 88.26 | 114.89 | 98.08 | 93.66 | 148.46 | 274.60 | 507.91 | 939.48 | 1,737.73 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 149.37 | 315.97 | 169.25 | 425.21 | 439.14 | 680.04 | 1,257.85 | 2,326.61 | 4,303.48 | 7,960.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 15.10 | 112.33 | 54.11 | 56.48 | 47.05 | 111.64 | 206.50 | 381.95 | 706.48 | 1,306.77 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 43.22 | 165.48 | 157.26 | 137.72 | 139.93 | 262.67 | 485.85 | 898.67 | 1,662.24 | 3,074.61 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 47.46 | 38.67 | 95.57 | 13.28 | 13.86 | 120.79 | 223.42 | 413.25 | 764.38 | 1,413.86 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -136.95 | -414.30 | -355.01 | -53.08 | -32.21 | -473.83 | -876.44 | -1,621.13 | -2,998.57 | -5,546.38 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.6,642 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.019 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 214.91 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.12 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 26.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.874 |
| Total Debt | 269.49 |
| Total Equity | 142.74 |
| Total Capital | 412.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 65.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 34.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 55.20 | 247.94 | 278.91 | 245.25 | 221.34 | 409.41 | 757.27 | 1,400.70 | 2,590.84 | 4,792.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -78.46 | -214.66 | -393.23 | -137.20 | -143.09 | -401.46 | -742.58 | -1,373.52 | -2,540.57 | -4,699.24 |
| EBIT | -90.72 | -302.92 | -508.12 | -235.28 | -236.75 | -549.92 | -1,017.17 | -1,881.44 | -3,480.05 | -6,436.96 |
| Tax Rate | 6.97% | 9.23% | 2.46% | 0.90% | 0.12% | 3.94% | 3.94% | 3.94% | 3.94% | 3.94% |
| EBIAT | -84.39 | -274.95 | -495.60 | -233.15 | -236.45 | -528.26 | -977.10 | -1,807.32 | -3,342.96 | -6,183.39 |
| Depreciation | 12.26 | 88.26 | 114.89 | 98.08 | 93.66 | 148.46 | 274.60 | 507.91 | 939.48 | 1,737.73 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -97.23 | 58.22 | -2.37 | 9.43 | -64.59 | -94.86 | -175.45 | -324.53 | -600.28 |
| Inventories | - | -122.26 | 8.22 | 19.54 | -2.20 | -122.74 | -223.18 | -412.82 | -763.58 | -1,412.37 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -8.78 | 56.90 | -82.30 | 0.58 | 106.93 | 102.63 | 189.83 | 351.13 | 649.48 |
| Capital Expenditure | -136.94 | -414.30 | -355.01 | -53.08 | -32.21 | -473.83 | -876.44 | -1,621.13 | -2,998.57 | -5,546.38 |
| UFCF | -209.08 | -829.27 | -612.38 | -253.28 | -167.20 | -934.03 | -1,794.36 | -3,318.98 | -6,139.03 | -11,355.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -753.62 | -1,168.11 | -1,743.29 | -2,601.68 | -3,882.74 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -10,149.44 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 23.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -11,582.32 |
| Terminal Value | -52,790.89 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -18,051.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -28,200.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -168.32 |
| Equity Value | -28,032.13 |
| Shares Outstanding | 214.91 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -130.44 |