Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)

$0.5274

+0.01 (+2.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -353.53 | 0.5274 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 55.20247.94278.91245.25221.34409.41757.271,400.702,590.844,792.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 94.58-191.86-3,174.65-535.43-1,554.29-1,608.82-2,975.79-5,504.25-10,181.08-18,831.71
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 82.32-280.12-3,289.54-633.51-1,647.95-1,757.28-3,250.39-6,012.17-11,120.56-20,569.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.2688.26114.8998.0893.66148.46274.60507.91939.481,737.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 149.37315.97169.25425.21439.14680.041,257.852,326.614,303.487,960.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 15.10112.3354.1156.4847.05111.64206.50381.95706.481,306.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 43.22165.48157.26137.72139.93262.67485.85898.671,662.243,074.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 47.4638.6719.7113.2813.8698.51182.22337.05623.431,153.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -136.95-414.30-355.01-53.08-32.21-473.83-876.44-1,621.13-2,998.57-5,546.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.5,274
Beta 3.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 169.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 26.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.905
Total Debt 269.49
Total Equity 89.19
Total Capital 358.68
Debt Weighting 75.13
Equity Weighting 24.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 55.20247.94278.91245.25221.34409.41757.271,400.702,590.844,792.21
EBITDA 94.58-191.86-3,174.65-535.43-1,554.29-1,608.82-2,975.79-5,504.25-10,181.08-18,831.71
EBIT 82.32-280.12-3,289.54-633.51-1,647.95-1,757.28-3,250.39-6,012.17-11,120.56-20,569.43
Tax Rate 6.97%11.39%2.96%0.88%0.15%4.47%4.47%4.47%4.47%4.47%
EBIAT 76.58-248.21-3,192.11-627.92-1,645.56-1,678.72-3,105.08-5,743.40-10,623.42-19,649.89
Depreciation 12.2688.26114.8998.0893.66148.46274.60507.91939.481,737.73
Accounts Receivable --97.2358.22-2.379.43-64.59-94.86-175.45-324.53-600.28
Inventories --122.268.2219.54-2.20-122.74-223.18-412.82-763.58-1,412.37
Accounts Payable --8.78-18.97-6.430.5884.6683.71154.83286.38529.71
Capital Expenditure -136.94-414.30-355.01-53.08-32.21-473.83-876.44-1,621.13-2,998.57-5,546.38
UFCF -48.10-802.52-3,384.75-572.19-1,576.31-2,106.77-3,941.26-7,290.06-13,484.24-24,941.48
WACC
PV UFCF -1,692.86-2,544.75-3,782.22-5,621.43-8,355.02
SUM PV UFCF -21,996.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 24.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -25,440.31
Terminal Value -113,319.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -37,960.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -59,956.75
Net Debt -168.32
Equity Value -59,788.43
Shares Outstanding 169.12
Equity Value Per Share -353.53