Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)
$0.5274
+0.01 (+2.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 55.20 | 247.94 | 278.91 | 245.25 | 221.34 | 409.41 | 757.27 | 1,400.70 | 2,590.84 | 4,792.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 94.58 | -191.86 | -3,174.65 | -535.43 | -1,554.29 | -1,608.82 | -2,975.79 | -5,504.25 | -10,181.08 | -18,831.71 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 82.32 | -280.12 | -3,289.54 | -633.51 | -1,647.95 | -1,757.28 | -3,250.39 | -6,012.17 | -11,120.56 | -20,569.43 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 12.26 | 88.26 | 114.89 | 98.08 | 93.66 | 148.46 | 274.60 | 507.91 | 939.48 | 1,737.73 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 149.37 | 315.97 | 169.25 | 425.21 | 439.14 | 680.04 | 1,257.85 | 2,326.61 | 4,303.48 | 7,960.04 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 15.10 | 112.33 | 54.11 | 56.48 | 47.05 | 111.64 | 206.50 | 381.95 | 706.48 | 1,306.77 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 43.22 | 165.48 | 157.26 | 137.72 | 139.93 | 262.67 | 485.85 | 898.67 | 1,662.24 | 3,074.61 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 47.46 | 38.67 | 19.71 | 13.28 | 13.86 | 98.51 | 182.22 | 337.05 | 623.43 | 1,153.14 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -136.95 | -414.30 | -355.01 | -53.08 | -32.21 | -473.83 | -876.44 | -1,621.13 | -2,998.57 | -5,546.38 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 0.5,274 |
---|---|
Beta | 3.000 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 169.12 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.15 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 26.61% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 17.905 |
Total Debt | 269.49 |
Total Equity | 89.19 |
Total Capital | 358.68 |
Debt Weighting | 75.13 |
Equity Weighting | 24.87 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 55.20 | 247.94 | 278.91 | 245.25 | 221.34 | 409.41 | 757.27 | 1,400.70 | 2,590.84 | 4,792.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 94.58 | -191.86 | -3,174.65 | -535.43 | -1,554.29 | -1,608.82 | -2,975.79 | -5,504.25 | -10,181.08 | -18,831.71 |
EBIT | 82.32 | -280.12 | -3,289.54 | -633.51 | -1,647.95 | -1,757.28 | -3,250.39 | -6,012.17 | -11,120.56 | -20,569.43 |
Tax Rate | 6.97% | 11.39% | 2.96% | 0.88% | 0.15% | 4.47% | 4.47% | 4.47% | 4.47% | 4.47% |
EBIAT | 76.58 | -248.21 | -3,192.11 | -627.92 | -1,645.56 | -1,678.72 | -3,105.08 | -5,743.40 | -10,623.42 | -19,649.89 |
Depreciation | 12.26 | 88.26 | 114.89 | 98.08 | 93.66 | 148.46 | 274.60 | 507.91 | 939.48 | 1,737.73 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -97.23 | 58.22 | -2.37 | 9.43 | -64.59 | -94.86 | -175.45 | -324.53 | -600.28 |
Inventories | - | -122.26 | 8.22 | 19.54 | -2.20 | -122.74 | -223.18 | -412.82 | -763.58 | -1,412.37 |
Accounts Payable | - | -8.78 | -18.97 | -6.43 | 0.58 | 84.66 | 83.71 | 154.83 | 286.38 | 529.71 |
Capital Expenditure | -136.94 | -414.30 | -355.01 | -53.08 | -32.21 | -473.83 | -876.44 | -1,621.13 | -2,998.57 | -5,546.38 |
UFCF | -48.10 | -802.52 | -3,384.75 | -572.19 | -1,576.31 | -2,106.77 | -3,941.26 | -7,290.06 | -13,484.24 | -24,941.48 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -1,692.86 | -2,544.75 | -3,782.22 | -5,621.43 | -8,355.02 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -21,996.29 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 24.45 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -25,440.31 |
Terminal Value | -113,319.86 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -37,960.46 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -59,956.75 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -168.32 |
Equity Value | -59,788.43 |
Shares Outstanding | 169.12 |
Equity Value Per Share | -353.53 |