Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AECOM (ACM)

$76.28

-1.18 (-1.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.42 | 76.28 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 18,203.4020,155.5120,173.3313,239.9813,340.8512,580.6011,863.6711,187.6010,550.059,948.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 857.04651.91226256.67676.95404.48381.43359.70339.20319.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 578.41384.34-35.1919.30500.55221.61208.98197.07185.84175.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 278.63267.57261.18237.38176.40182.87172.45162.62153.36144.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 802.36886.731,080.351,708.331,229.20912.83860.81811.75765.49721.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,183.105,595.625,826.774,437.933,956.833,731.353,518.713,318.193,129.102,950.78
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,249.872,726.052,954.722,352.141,944.321,833.521,729.041,630.501,537.591,449.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -86.35-113.28-100.66-114.59-136.26-86.11-81.20-76.57-72.21-68.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.28
Beta 1.402
Diluted Shares Outstanding 149.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 57.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.612
Total Debt 3,520.23
Total Equity 11,417.29
Total Capital 14,937.51
Debt Weighting 23.57
Equity Weighting 76.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 18,203.4020,155.5120,173.3313,239.9813,340.8512,580.6011,863.6711,187.6010,550.059,948.84
EBITDA 857.04651.91226256.67676.95404.48381.43359.70339.20319.87
EBIT 578.41384.34-35.1919.30500.55221.61208.98197.07185.84175.25
Tax Rate 20.92%23.11%-41.78%180.12%57.64%48.00%48.00%48.00%48.00%48.00%
EBIAT 457.39295.52-49.89-15.46212.05115.23108.67102.4796.6491.13
Depreciation 278.63267.57261.18237.38176.40182.87172.45162.62153.36144.62
Accounts Receivable --412.52-231.151,388.84481.09225.49212.64200.52189.09178.32
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -476.17228.67-602.57-407.82-110.80-104.49-98.53-92.92-87.62
Capital Expenditure -86.35-113.28-100.66-114.59-136.26-86.11-81.20-76.57-72.21-68.10
UFCF 649.67513.47108.15893.59325.46326.68308.07290.51273.96258.34
WACC
PV UFCF 302.43264.02230.49201.22175.66
SUM PV UFCF 1,173.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 263.51
Terminal Value 4,377.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,976.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,150.15
Net Debt 2,291.03
Equity Value 1,859.12
Shares Outstanding 149.68
Equity Value Per Share 12.42