Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)

$5.24

+0.41 (+8.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -194.21 | 5.24 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1.801.142.343.144.225.667.6010.2013.7018.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -89.47-122.13-114.10-238.27-230.54-380.48-510.78-685.69-920.51-1,235.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -89.81-122.87-115.75-240.46-233.17-383.72-515.13-691.53-928.35-1,246.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.340.741.652.192.633.244.355.847.8410.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 262.75138.81115.55439.19466.54642.35862.321,157.631,554.062,086.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.931.711.361.4430.2212.2016.3821.9929.5239.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----11.1214.9320.0426.9136.1248.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.626.753.335.2812.0818.2524.4932.8844.1459.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.47-2.15-2.81-6.38-8.20-11.01-14.78-19.84-26.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.24
Beta 1.108
Diluted Shares Outstanding 65.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.847
Total Debt 139.70
Total Equity 342.75
Total Capital 482.45
Debt Weighting 28.96
Equity Weighting 71.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1.801.142.343.144.225.667.6010.2013.7018.39
EBITDA -89.47-122.13-114.10-238.27-230.54-380.48-510.78-685.69-920.51-1,235.75
EBIT -89.81-122.87-115.75-240.46-233.17-383.72-515.13-691.53-928.35-1,246.27
Tax Rate -0.05%-0.18%-0.50%-0.13%8.54%1.53%1.53%1.53%1.53%1.53%
EBIAT -89.86-123.10-116.33-240.78-213.25-377.83-507.23-680.93-914.11-1,227.16
Depreciation 0.340.741.652.192.633.244.355.847.8410.52
Accounts Receivable -0.220.35-0.08-28.7718.02-4.18-5.61-7.53-10.11
Inventories ------3.81-5.11-6.86-9.21-12.37
Accounts Payable --0.87-3.421.956.806.176.258.3911.2615.12
Capital Expenditure -3.16-2.47-2.15-2.81-6.38-8.20-11.01-14.78-19.84-26.63
UFCF -92.68-125.48-119.90-239.53-238.97-362.42-516.92-693.95-931.59-1,250.62
WACC
PV UFCF -262.91-238.97-330.19-429.08-524.80-641.88-785.07
SUM PV UFCF -2,711.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,275.64
Terminal Value -16,438.62
Present Value of Terminal Value -10,319.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,030.19
Net Debt -326.85
Equity Value -12,703.34
Shares Outstanding 65.41
Equity Value Per Share -194.21