Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adler Group S.A. (ADJ.DE)

1.315 €

-0.04 (-3.02%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 52,252.86 | 1.315 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	128.85	154.85	156.52	758.74	1,143.73	2,449.73	5,247.03	11,238.50	24,071.49	51,558.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	445.56	483.99	710.17	464.43	-804.92	5,403.64	11,573.94	24,789.97	53,097.07	113,727.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	445.11	483.47	708.69	453.13	-824.57	5,379.88	11,523.05	24,680.96	52,863.60	113,227.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.45	0.53	1.49	11.30	19.65	23.76	50.89	109	233.47	500.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	121.53	27.97	387.56	399.71	664.65	2,306.57	4,940.39	10,581.72	22,664.74	48,545.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	42.96	35.03	25.86	1,254.46	1,093.45	1,633.59	3,498.96	7,494.34	16,051.96	34,381.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	13.64	18.50	22.08	118.61	76.38	288.82	618.62	1,325	2,838	6,078.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.80	-1.18	-3.12	-7.88	-3.95	-23.31	-49.93	-106.95	-229.08	-490.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.315
Beta	1.267
Diluted Shares Outstanding	117.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-15.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.613
Total Debt	7,020.43
Total Equity	154.53
Total Capital	7,174.96
Debt Weighting	97.85
Equity Weighting	2.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	128.85	154.85	156.52	758.74	1,143.73	2,449.73	5,247.03	11,238.50	24,071.49	51,558.18
EBITDA	445.56	483.99	710.17	464.43	-804.92	5,403.64	11,573.94	24,789.97	53,097.07	113,727.43
EBIT	445.11	483.47	708.69	453.13	-824.57	5,379.88	11,523.05	24,680.96	52,863.60	113,227.37
Tax Rate	18.27%	17.28%	12.01%	54.18%	-15.11%	17.33%	17.33%	17.33%	17.33%	17.33%
EBIAT	363.78	399.90	623.58	207.62	-949.17	4,447.71	9,526.44	20,404.47	43,703.88	93,608.36
Depreciation	0.45	0.53	1.49	11.30	19.65	23.76	50.89	109	233.47	500.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	7.93	9.17	-1,228.60	161.01	-540.14	-1,865.36	-3,995.38	-8,557.62	-18,329.37
Accounts Payable	-	4.85	3.58	96.53	-42.23	212.44	329.80	706.39	1,512.99	3,240.65
Capital Expenditure	-0.80	-1.18	-3.12	-7.88	-3.95	-23.31	-49.93	-106.95	-229.08	-490.66
UFCF	363.44	412.03	634.69	-921.03	-814.69	4,120.45	7,991.83	17,117.52	36,663.64	78,529.03
WACC
PV UFCF						3,995.01	7,512.63	15,601.26	32,398.66	67,281.34
SUM PV UFCF										126,788.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.14
Free cash flow (t + 1)	80,099.61
Terminal Value	7,026,281.70
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,019,908.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,146,697.84
Net Debt	6,464.73
Equity Value	6,140,233.11
Shares Outstanding	117.51
Equity Value Per Share	52,252.86