Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)

$5.18

+0.03 (+0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -474.82 | 5.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 16.9929.3542.2280.94154.08269.15470.14821.251,434.552,505.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -56.77-40.01-64.04-57.88-39.24-387.15-676.27-1,181.31-2,063.51-3,604.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -60.22-43.26-67.98-63.37-46.35-415.21-725.29-1,266.94-2,213.09-3,865.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.453.263.945.507.1128.0649.0285.63149.58261.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 22.7526.7555.9251.0986.52256.68448.37783.211,368.112,389.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.393.4713.2428.5815.5152.0890.97158.90277.56484.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 18.6253.0681.54124.72163.28400.27699.191,221.342,133.433,726.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.909.1711.0712.4313.2362.53109.23190.81333.30582.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.10-3.81-12.73-13.51-13.91-43.70-76.34-133.35-232.94-406.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.18
Beta 0.473
Diluted Shares Outstanding 197.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -29.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.536
Total Debt 154.44
Total Equity 1,024.99
Total Capital 1,179.43
Debt Weighting 13.09
Equity Weighting 86.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 16.9929.3542.2280.94154.08269.15470.14821.251,434.552,505.87
EBITDA -56.77-40.01-64.04-57.88-39.24-387.15-676.27-1,181.31-2,063.51-3,604.53
EBIT -60.22-43.26-67.98-63.37-46.35-415.21-725.29-1,266.94-2,213.09-3,865.82
Tax Rate 0.00%-18.16%-15.65%-17.87%-29.25%-16.19%-16.19%-16.19%-16.19%-16.19%
EBIAT -60.22-51.12-78.62-74.70-59.91-482.42-842.70-1,472.02-2,571.32-4,491.58
Depreciation 3.453.263.945.507.1128.0649.0285.63149.58261.29
Accounts Receivable --2.08-9.77-15.3413.07-36.57-38.89-67.93-118.66-207.28
Inventories --34.45-28.47-43.19-38.56-236.99-298.92-522.15-912.09-1,593.24
Accounts Payable -3.271.901.360.8049.3046.7081.57142.49248.91
Capital Expenditure -2.10-3.81-12.73-13.51-13.91-43.70-76.34-133.35-232.94-406.91
UFCF -58.87-84.93-123.75-139.89-91.39-722.32-1,161.13-2,028.25-3,542.95-6,188.81
WACC
PV UFCF -673.11-1,008.32-1,641.35-2,671.80-4,349.17
SUM PV UFCF -10,343.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,312.59
Terminal Value -118,881.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -83,543.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -93,887.15
Net Debt 67.92
Equity Value -93,955.08
Shares Outstanding 197.87
Equity Value Per Share -474.82