Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADMS)

$8.22

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -498,055,540.52 | 8.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 0.570.5734.0554.6474.461,183.7618,819.22299,183.704,756,355.2175,615,466.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -59.36-85.38-110.45-88.93-43.31-61,263.88-973,959.33-15,483,786.55-246,157,759.05-3,913,360,736.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -60.17-86.58-111.91-90.14-44.16-62,111.50-987,434.59-15,698,013.27-249,563,487.32-3,967,504,239.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.811.191.461.210.85847.6213,475.26214,226.723,405,728.2754,143,502.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 113.65173.44210.87132.6183.36121,261.011,927,780.2230,647,416.79487,225,745.017,745,805,404.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.961.376.357.039.291,072.0517,043.18270,948.584,307,479.6668,479,343.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -1.705.125.277.29985.1915,662.34248,996.353,958,487.9562,931,151.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.593.886.576.932.143,175.9750,490.87802,692.5612,761,025.88202,871,921.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.62-1.26-1.06-0.02-94.45-1,501.57-23,871.68-379,506.63-6,033,311.12-95,916,224.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.22
Beta 2.816
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.094
Total Debt 129.96
Total Equity 289.07
Total Capital 419.04
Debt Weighting 31.01
Equity Weighting 68.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 0.570.5734.0554.6474.461,183.7618,819.22299,183.704,756,355.2175,615,466.34
EBITDA -59.36-85.38-110.45-88.93-43.31-61,263.88-973,959.33-15,483,786.55-246,157,759.05-3,913,360,736.84
EBIT -60.17-86.58-111.91-90.14-44.16-62,111.50-987,434.59-15,698,013.27-249,563,487.32-3,967,504,239.51
Tax Rate 0.19%1.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.42%0.42%0.42%0.42%0.42%
EBIAT -60.06-84.93-111.91-90.14-44.16-61,852.16-983,311.80-15,632,470-248,521,495.10-3,950,938,881.41
Depreciation 0.811.191.461.210.85847.6213,475.26214,226.723,405,728.2754,143,502.67
Accounts Receivable --0.41-4.98-0.68-2.27-1,062.75-15,971.13-253,905.41-4,036,531.08-64,171,864
Inventories ---3.42-0.15-2.03-977.90-14,677.15-233,334.01-3,709,491.60-58,972,663.88
Accounts Payable -0.292.690.36-4.793,173.8347,314.90752,201.6811,958,333.33190,110,895.95
Capital Expenditure -1.62-1.26-1.06-0.02-94.45-1,501.57-23,871.68-379,506.63-6,033,311.12-95,916,224.31
UFCF -60.87-85.12-117.21-89.41-146.84-61,372.94-977,041.59-15,532,787.64-246,936,767.31-3,925,745,234.99
WACC
PV UFCF -53,390.99-739,426.65-10,226,392.98-141,432,707.72-1,956,037,759.54
SUM PV UFCF -2,108,489,677.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4,004,260,139.69
Terminal Value -30,920,927,719.59
Present Value of Terminal Value -15,406,629,457.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -17,515,119,135.22
Net Debt 58.30
Equity Value -17,515,119,193.53
Shares Outstanding 35.17
Equity Value Per Share -498,055,540.52