Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ADMS)

$8.22

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -481,828,160.61 | 8.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	0.57	0.57	34.05	54.64	74.46	1,183.76	18,819.22	299,183.70	4,756,355.21	75,615,466.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-59.36	-85.38	-110.45	-88.93	-43.31	-61,263.88	-973,959.33	-15,483,786.55	-246,157,759.05	-3,913,360,736.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-60.17	-86.58	-111.91	-90.14	-44.16	-62,111.50	-987,434.59	-15,698,013.27	-249,563,487.32	-3,967,504,239.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.81	1.19	1.46	1.21	0.85	847.62	13,475.26	214,226.72	3,405,728.27	54,143,502.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	113.65	173.44	210.87	132.61	83.36	121,261.01	1,927,780.22	30,647,416.79	487,225,745.01	7,745,805,404.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	0.96	1.37	6.35	7.03	9.29	1,072.05	17,043.18	270,948.58	4,307,479.66	68,479,343.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	1.70	5.12	5.27	7.29	985.19	15,662.34	248,996.35	3,958,487.95	62,931,151.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3.59	3.88	6.57	6.93	2.14	3,175.97	50,490.87	802,692.56	12,761,025.88	202,871,921.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.62	-1.26	-1.06	-0.02	-94.45	-1,501.57	-23,871.68	-379,506.63	-6,033,311.12	-95,916,224.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 8.22
Beta	2.816
Diluted Shares Outstanding	35.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	10.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	17.522
Total Debt	129.96
Total Equity	289.07
Total Capital	419.04
Debt Weighting	31.01
Equity Weighting	68.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	0.57	0.57	34.05	54.64	74.46	1,183.76	18,819.22	299,183.70	4,756,355.21	75,615,466.34
EBITDA	-59.36	-85.38	-110.45	-88.93	-43.31	-61,263.88	-973,959.33	-15,483,786.55	-246,157,759.05	-3,913,360,736.84
EBIT	-60.17	-86.58	-111.91	-90.14	-44.16	-62,111.50	-987,434.59	-15,698,013.27	-249,563,487.32	-3,967,504,239.51
Tax Rate	0.19%	1.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.42%	0.42%	0.42%	0.42%	0.42%
EBIAT	-60.06	-84.93	-111.91	-90.14	-44.16	-61,852.16	-983,311.80	-15,632,470	-248,521,495.10	-3,950,938,881.41
Depreciation	0.81	1.19	1.46	1.21	0.85	847.62	13,475.26	214,226.72	3,405,728.27	54,143,502.67
Accounts Receivable	-	-0.41	-4.98	-0.68	-2.27	-1,062.75	-15,971.13	-253,905.41	-4,036,531.08	-64,171,864
Inventories	-	-	-3.42	-0.15	-2.03	-977.90	-14,677.15	-233,334.01	-3,709,491.60	-58,972,663.88
Accounts Payable	-	0.29	2.69	0.36	-4.79	3,173.83	47,314.90	752,201.68	11,958,333.33	190,110,895.95
Capital Expenditure	-1.62	-1.26	-1.06	-0.02	-94.45	-1,501.57	-23,871.68	-379,506.63	-6,033,311.12	-95,916,224.31
UFCF	-60.87	-85.12	-117.21	-89.41	-146.84	-61,372.94	-977,041.59	-15,532,787.64	-246,936,767.31	-3,925,745,234.99
WACC
PV UFCF						-53,252.01	-735,582.15	-10,146,741.64	-139,965,829.45	-1,930,711,760.11
SUM PV UFCF										-2,081,613,165.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	15.25
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-4,004,260,139.69
Terminal Value	-30,220,831,242.92
Present Value of Terminal Value	-14,862,837,700.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-16,944,450,865.86
Net Debt	58.30
Equity Value	-16,944,450,924.17
Shares Outstanding	35.17
Equity Value Per Share	-481,828,160.61