Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

$194.61

-3.78 (-1.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 8.39 | 194.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,056.602,569.803,274.303,790.404,386.405,305.956,418.277,763.779,391.3311,360.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -414.40104.60476.10721.60712.80358.14433.22524.04633.89766.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -522.809.40348.80597.80564.70151.15182.83221.16267.52323.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 108.4095.20127.30123.80148.10206.99250.39302.88366.37443.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,323.20953.601,843.701,857.201,764.102,620.823,170.243,834.844,638.765,611.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 438.20474.30652.30643.10716.10986.671,193.511,443.711,746.372,112.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 94.70101.6083.70122.50120.80181.47219.51265.53321.19388.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -50.70-67-53.20-95.90-66.50-114.01-137.91-166.82-201.79-244.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 194.61
Beta 1.493
Diluted Shares Outstanding 222
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.558
Total Debt 3,060
Total Equity 43,203.42
Total Capital 46,263.42
Debt Weighting 6.61
Equity Weighting 93.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,056.602,569.803,274.303,790.404,386.405,305.956,418.277,763.779,391.3311,360.10
EBITDA -414.40104.60476.10721.60712.80358.14433.22524.04633.89766.78
EBIT -522.809.40348.80597.80564.70151.15182.83221.16267.52323.61
Tax Rate -1.72%-89.23%27.24%-121.00%11.99%-34.54%-34.54%-34.54%-34.54%-34.54%
EBIAT -531.8117.79253.791,321.13497203.36245.99297.56359.94435.39
Depreciation 108.4095.20127.30123.80148.10206.99250.39302.88366.37443.17
Accounts Receivable --36.10-1789.20-73-270.57-206.84-250.20-302.65-366.10
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -6.90-17.9038.80-1.7060.6738.0446.0255.6667.33
Capital Expenditure -50.70-67-53.20-95.90-66.50-114.01-137.91-166.82-201.79-244.09
UFCF -474.1116.79131.991,397.03503.9086.44189.67229.43277.53335.71
WACC
PV UFCF 78.48156.33171.67188.53207.03
SUM PV UFCF 802.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 342.42
Terminal Value 4,201.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,591.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,393.14
Net Debt 1,531.60
Equity Value 1,861.54
Shares Outstanding 222
Equity Value Per Share 8.39