Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ADT Inc. (ADT)

$6.655

+0.03 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 160.70 | 6.655 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,5825,1265,3155,3076,3956,969.127,594.778,276.609,019.649,829.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,3212,3342,0841,9772,3672,922.333,184.693,470.603,782.174,121.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 39034517062673419.99457.70498.79543.57592.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,9311,9891,9141,9151,6942,502.342,726.992,971.813,238.603,529.35
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3634920524257239.82261.35284.82310.39338.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 246287336442597487.19530.93578.59630.54687.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 115138216348410309.91337.73368.05401.10437.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 221242322475487448.37488.62532.49580.29632.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -703-701-575-863-912-980.68-1,068.72-1,164.67-1,269.23-1,383.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.655
Beta 1.572
Diluted Shares Outstanding 778
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.02
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.714
Total Debt 9,829
Total Equity 5,177.59
Total Capital 15,006.59
Debt Weighting 65.50
Equity Weighting 34.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,5825,1265,3155,3076,3956,969.127,594.778,276.609,019.649,829.39
EBITDA 2,3212,3342,0841,9772,3672,922.333,184.693,470.603,782.174,121.72
EBIT 39034517062673419.99457.70498.79543.57592.37
Tax Rate 3.79%18.77%18.87%27.60%44.02%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.61%
EBIAT 375.21280.23137.9244.89376.72325.03354.20386420.66458.42
Depreciation 1,9311,9891,9141,9151,6942,502.342,726.992,971.813,238.603,529.35
Accounts Receivable --41-49-106-155109.81-43.74-47.66-51.94-56.61
Inventories --23-78-132-62100.09-27.82-30.32-33.04-36.01
Accounts Payable -218015312-38.6340.2543.8747.8052.10
Capital Expenditure -703-701-575-863-912-980.68-1,068.72-1,164.67-1,269.23-1,383.17
UFCF 1,603.211,525.231,429.921,011.89953.722,017.951,981.162,159.022,352.852,564.08
WACC
PV UFCF 1,910.581,775.941,832.391,890.641,950.74
SUM PV UFCF 9,360.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,666.64
Terminal Value 164,607.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 125,232.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 134,593.27
Net Debt 9,572
Equity Value 125,021.27
Shares Outstanding 778
Equity Value Per Share 160.70