Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ADT Inc. (ADT)

$7.78

+0.29 (+3.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 241.85 | 7.78 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,315.504,581.675,125.665,314.795,3075,593.375,895.196,213.306,548.576,901.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,174.451,961.522,086.461,843.041,2462,148.542,264.482,386.672,515.462,651.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 311.1630.5997.38-70.73-669-46.53-49.04-51.68-54.47-57.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,863.301,930.931,989.081,913.771,9152,195.072,313.522,438.352,569.932,708.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 122.90363.1848.7420524179.38189.06199.26210.01221.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 148.82245.71287.24336.03442325.16342.71361.20380.69401.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 106.92115.31138.40216.15277189.96200.22211.02222.41234.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 187.69221.34241.95321.59475323.32340.77359.16378.54398.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -713.35-703.09-701.15-575.55-168-666.17-702.11-740-779.93-822.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.78
Beta 1.970
Diluted Shares Outstanding 778
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.60
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.912
Total Debt 9,693
Total Equity 6,052.84
Total Capital 15,745.84
Debt Weighting 61.56
Equity Weighting 38.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,315.504,581.675,125.665,314.795,3075,593.375,895.196,213.306,548.576,901.93
EBITDA 2,174.451,961.522,086.461,843.041,2462,148.542,264.482,386.672,515.462,651.19
EBIT 311.1630.5997.38-70.73-669-46.53-49.04-51.68-54.47-57.41
Tax Rate 181.25%3.71%18.78%18.84%27.60%50.03%50.03%50.03%50.03%50.03%
EBIAT -252.8229.4579.10-57.41-484.35-23.25-24.50-25.82-27.22-28.69
Depreciation 1,863.301,930.931,989.081,913.771,9152,195.072,313.522,438.352,569.932,708.60
Accounts Receivable --96.89-41.53-48.79-105.97116.84-17.55-18.49-19.49-20.54
Inventories --8.39-23.09-77.75-60.8587.04-10.25-10.80-11.39-12
Accounts Payable -33.6520.6179.64153.41-151.6817.4518.3919.3820.43
Capital Expenditure -713.35-703.09-701.15-575.55-168-666.17-702.11-740-779.93-822.01
UFCF 897.131,185.651,323.031,233.921,249.241,557.851,576.551,661.621,751.281,845.79
WACC
PV UFCF 1,514.531,490.101,526.841,564.481,603.06
SUM PV UFCF 7,699.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,882.70
Terminal Value 218,918.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 190,129.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 197,828.83
Net Debt 9,669
Equity Value 188,159.83
Shares Outstanding 778
Equity Value Per Share 241.85