Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Advicenne S.A. (ADVIC.PA)
6.5 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 1.19 | 2 | 4.31 | 9.29 | 20.03 | 43.18 | 93.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -3.34 | -3.07 | -5.26 | -5.30 | -14 | -51.82 | -111.71 | -240.83 | -519.17 | -1,119.22 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -3.44 | -3.17 | -5.45 | -5.44 | -14.81 | -53.58 | -115.50 | -248.99 | -536.76 | -1,157.15 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.81 | 1.76 | 3.79 | 8.16 | 17.59 | 37.92 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.64 | 1.58 | 36.18 | 26.23 | 16.63 | 82.87 | 178.66 | 385.15 | 830.30 | 1,789.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 3.09 | 6.67 | 14.37 | 30.99 | 66.80 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.70 | 0.91 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 3.91 | 12.87 | 27.74 | 59.81 | 128.94 | 277.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.14 | -0.88 | -1.89 | -4.08 | -8.80 | -18.97 | -40.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.432 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.16 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.87 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.30% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.473 |
| Total Debt | 0.45 |
| Total Equity | 53.06 |
| Total Capital | 53.51 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.84 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.16 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.81 | 1.19 | 2 | 4.31 | 9.29 | 20.03 | 43.18 | 93.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -3.34 | -3.07 | -5.26 | -5.30 | -14 | -51.82 | -111.71 | -240.83 | -519.17 | -1,119.22 |
| EBIT | -3.44 | -3.17 | -5.45 | -5.44 | -14.81 | -53.58 | -115.50 | -248.99 | -536.76 | -1,157.15 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.59% | 15.07% | 5.87% | 7.31% | 7.31% | 7.31% | 7.31% | 7.31% |
| EBIAT | -3.44 | -3.17 | -4.60 | -4.62 | -13.94 | -49.66 | -107.06 | -230.80 | -497.55 | -1,072.61 |
| Depreciation | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.81 | 1.76 | 3.79 | 8.16 | 17.59 | 37.92 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0.12 | 0.04 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -2.60 | -3.57 | -7.71 | -16.61 | -35.81 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.21 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 2.24 | 8.96 | 14.87 | 32.07 | 69.13 | 149.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.14 | -0.88 | -1.89 | -4.08 | -8.80 | -18.97 | -40.89 |
| UFCF | -3.51 | -3 | -3.92 | -4.52 | -11.86 | -43.43 | -96.05 | -207.07 | -446.41 | -962.36 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -39.34 | -78.81 | -153.89 | -300.51 | -586.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,159.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -981.60 |
| Terminal Value | -11,685.75 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -7,125.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -8,284.78 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -13.96 |
| Equity Value | -8,270.83 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.16 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1,013.16 |