Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Adams Resources & Energy, Inc. (AE)

$23.4

-0.54 (-2.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 251.02 | 23.4 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,750.211,811.251,022.422,025.203,366.924,412.905,783.827,580.659,935.6913,022.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14.2227.2113.4836.2029.4055.5572.8095.42125.06163.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.5610.57-5.0916.406.6911.4515.0119.6725.7933.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.6516.6418.5719.8022.7144.0957.7975.7599.28130.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 117.07112.9939.2997.8320.53196.02256.92336.74441.35578.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 88.0397.10113.09144.21189.04301.73395.46518.32679.34890.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22.7826.4119.3418.9426.9256.3673.8696.81126.89166.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 116.07147.8585.99168.22204.42331.70434.75569.81746.83978.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.73-35.74-5.01-12.38-7.49-35.02-45.89-60.15-78.84-103.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.4
Beta 0.791
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.019
Total Debt 48.56
Total Equity 58.39
Total Capital 106.96
Debt Weighting 45.40
Equity Weighting 54.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,750.211,811.251,022.422,025.203,366.924,412.905,783.827,580.659,935.6913,022.34
EBITDA 14.2227.2113.4836.2029.4055.5572.8095.42125.06163.92
EBIT 3.5610.57-5.0916.406.6911.4515.0119.6725.7933.80
Tax Rate 14.74%21.86%117.98%24.07%35.49%42.83%42.83%42.83%42.83%42.83%
EBIAT 3.048.260.9212.454.326.558.5811.2514.7419.32
Depreciation 10.6516.6418.5719.8022.7144.0957.7975.7599.28130.12
Accounts Receivable --9.08-15.98-31.13-44.82-112.69-93.74-122.86-161.02-211.05
Inventories --3.637.070.39-7.98-29.44-17.51-22.95-30.08-39.42
Accounts Payable -31.78-61.8682.2336.20127.28103.05135.06177.02232.01
Capital Expenditure -11.73-35.74-5.01-12.38-7.49-35.02-45.89-60.15-78.84-103.33
UFCF 1.968.23-56.2971.372.930.7812.2916.1021.1027.66
WACC
PV UFCF 0.7411.0113.6616.9521.03
SUM PV UFCF 63.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28.21
Terminal Value 777.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 591.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 654.44
Net Debt 28.03
Equity Value 626.41
Shares Outstanding 2.50
Equity Value Per Share 251.02