Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

$89.08

-1.33 (-1.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -157.50 | 89.08 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1776,2915,9105,7946,3946,460.856,528.406,596.656,665.626,735.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,4422,4862,4722,5982,8072,708.622,736.942,765.552,794.472,823.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,4901,4531,3911,4451,5301,545.731,561.891,578.221,594.721,611.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9521,0331,0811,1531,2771,162.891,175.051,187.331,199.751,212.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 101616142.57842.2942.7343.1843.6344.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 838837734749820840.46849.25858.13867.10876.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 522483494521592552.24558.02563.85569.75575.70
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9028178749581,095982.54992.811,003.191,013.681,024.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,195-2,338-2,442-3,299-3,523-2,921.03-2,951.56-2,982.42-3,013.61-3,045.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 89.08
Beta 0.364
Diluted Shares Outstanding 248.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.415
Total Debt 13,612
Total Equity 22,154.20
Total Capital 35,766.20
Debt Weighting 38.06
Equity Weighting 61.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,1776,2915,9105,7946,3946,460.856,528.406,596.656,665.626,735.31
EBITDA 2,4422,4862,4722,5982,8072,708.622,736.942,765.552,794.472,823.69
EBIT 1,4901,4531,3911,4451,5301,545.731,561.891,578.221,594.721,611.40
Tax Rate 52.67%22.97%18.50%15.60%14.06%24.76%24.76%24.76%24.76%24.76%
EBIAT 705.221,119.281,133.611,219.571,314.841,162.991,175.151,187.441,199.851,212.40
Depreciation 9521,0331,0811,1531,2771,162.891,175.051,187.331,199.751,212.29
Accounts Receivable -1103-15-71-20.46-8.79-8.88-8.97-9.07
Inventories -39-11-27-7139.76-5.77-5.83-5.90-5.96
Accounts Payable --855784137-112.4610.2710.3810.4910.60
Capital Expenditure -2,195-2,338-2,442-3,299-3,523-2,921.03-2,951.56-2,982.42-3,013.61-3,045.11
UFCF -537.78-230.72-78.39-884.43-936.16-688.31-605.65-611.99-618.38-624.85
WACC
PV UFCF -660.12-557.06-539.84-523.14-506.97
SUM PV UFCF -2,787.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) -637.35
Terminal Value -28,076.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -22,779.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -25,567.07
Net Debt 13,604
Equity Value -39,171.07
Shares Outstanding 248.70
Equity Value Per Share -157.50