Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)
$44.37
+1.71 (+4.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 21.06 | 22.29 | 16.60 | 50.83 | 64.96 | 99.77 | 153.23 | 235.34 | 361.44 | 555.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -3.55 | -2.32 | -6.37 | 6.10 | 13.37 | -6.60 | -10.13 | -15.56 | -23.90 | -36.70 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -3.98 | -2.71 | -6.68 | 5.80 | 12.92 | -7.98 | -12.26 | -18.82 | -28.91 | -44.40 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 2.12 | 3.26 | 5.01 | 7.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5.43 | 5.43 | 4.58 | 31.48 | 47.91 | 42.59 | 65.41 | 100.46 | 154.29 | 236.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.86 | 3.72 | 5.20 | 12.86 | 16.59 | 24.33 | 37.37 | 57.39 | 88.14 | 135.37 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.06 | 7.99 | 8.85 | 15.05 | 23.91 | 39.63 | 60.86 | 93.47 | 143.56 | 220.49 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.93 | 0.94 | 2.89 | 4.20 | 9.21 | 10.63 | 16.33 | 25.07 | 38.51 | 59.14 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -1.36 | -1.16 | -1.79 | -2.75 | -4.22 | -6.48 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 44.37 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.015 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.41 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -19.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.051 |
| Total Debt | 6.30 |
| Total Equity | 1,296.27 |
| Total Capital | 1,302.57 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.48 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.52 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 21.06 | 22.29 | 16.60 | 50.83 | 64.96 | 99.77 | 153.23 | 235.34 | 361.44 | 555.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -3.55 | -2.32 | -6.37 | 6.10 | 13.37 | -6.60 | -10.13 | -15.56 | -23.90 | -36.70 |
| EBIT | -3.98 | -2.71 | -6.68 | 5.80 | 12.92 | -7.98 | -12.26 | -18.82 | -28.91 | -44.40 |
| Tax Rate | -0.52% | -1.30% | 8.03% | 0.95% | 0.41% | 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.52% |
| EBIAT | -4 | -2.74 | -6.14 | 5.74 | 12.87 | -7.86 | -12.07 | -18.54 | -28.47 | -43.73 |
| Depreciation | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 2.12 | 3.26 | 5.01 | 7.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.14 | -1.48 | -7.66 | -3.73 | -7.74 | -13.04 | -20.02 | -30.75 | -47.23 |
| Inventories | - | 1.07 | -0.86 | -6.20 | -8.86 | -15.72 | -21.23 | -32.61 | -50.09 | -76.93 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.99 | 1.95 | 1.30 | 5.01 | 1.42 | 5.70 | 8.75 | 13.44 | 20.64 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -1.36 | -1.16 | -1.79 | -2.75 | -4.22 | -6.48 |
| UFCF | -3.74 | -1.30 | -6.46 | -6.93 | 4.38 | -29.67 | -40.31 | -61.91 | -95.08 | -146.03 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -26.05 | -31.08 | -41.91 | -56.51 | -76.21 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -231.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.89 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -148.95 |
| Terminal Value | -1,252.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -653.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -885.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -23.75 |
| Equity Value | -861.78 |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -29.50 |