Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

$46.12

-0.89 (-1.89%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 27.09 | 46.12 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,191.22	2,494.89	3,138.11	3,823.88	5,741.16	7,343.41	9,392.83	12,014.19	15,367.13	19,655.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	789.20	1,031.79	1,408.41	1,750.35	2,422.66	3,087.54	3,949.22	5,051.37	6,461.12	8,264.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	235.26	485.73	777.31	1,012.23	1,327.97	1,535.91	1,964.55	2,512.82	3,214.11	4,111.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	553.93	546.06	631.10	738.13	1,094.69	1,551.63	1,984.67	2,538.55	3,247.01	4,153.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	384.44	414.15	406.46	191.07	658.63	933.58	1,194.13	1,527.38	1,953.65	2,498.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	27.86	10.60	15.52	21.22	43.63	51.49	65.86	84.24	107.75	137.82
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	494.15	580.07	630.47	878.94	1,209.07	1,614.64	2,065.25	2,641.63	3,378.86	4,321.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	310.60	345.57	363.80	414.67	672.50	913.18	1,168.03	1,494.01	1,910.96	2,444.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,089.10	-882.66	-759.34	-917.68	-1,538.24	-2,350.94	-3,007.04	-3,846.25	-4,919.66	-6,292.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 46.12
Beta	0.840
Diluted Shares Outstanding	244.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	39.91
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.492
Total Debt	1,493.41
Total Equity	11,287.04
Total Capital	12,780.45
Debt Weighting	11.69
Equity Weighting	88.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,191.22	2,494.89	3,138.11	3,823.88	5,741.16	7,343.41	9,392.83	12,014.19	15,367.13	19,655.81
EBITDA	789.20	1,031.79	1,408.41	1,750.35	2,422.66	3,087.54	3,949.22	5,051.37	6,461.12	8,264.30
EBIT	235.26	485.73	777.31	1,012.23	1,327.97	1,535.91	1,964.55	2,512.82	3,214.11	4,111.10
Tax Rate	-26.11%	35.95%	33.35%	39.89%	39.91%	24.60%	24.60%	24.60%	24.60%	24.60%
EBIAT	296.70	311.11	518.10	608.42	797.97	1,158.12	1,481.33	1,894.74	2,423.52	3,099.88
Depreciation	553.93	546.06	631.10	738.13	1,094.69	1,551.63	1,984.67	2,538.55	3,247.01	4,153.20
Accounts Receivable	-	17.26	-4.92	-5.70	-22.41	-7.86	-14.37	-18.38	-23.51	-30.07
Inventories	-	-85.92	-50.41	-248.47	-330.13	-405.56	-450.62	-576.37	-737.23	-942.98
Accounts Payable	-	34.97	18.23	50.87	257.83	240.68	254.85	325.98	416.95	533.31
Capital Expenditure	-1,089.10	-882.66	-759.34	-917.68	-1,538.24	-2,350.94	-3,007.04	-3,846.25	-4,919.66	-6,292.65
UFCF	-238.47	-59.18	352.76	225.57	259.71	186.07	248.82	318.26	407.08	520.69
WACC
PV UFCF						172.46	213.76	253.42	300.44	356.18
SUM PV UFCF										1,296.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	531.10
Terminal Value	9,017.06
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,168.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	7,464.47
Net Debt	834.79
Equity Value	6,629.69
Shares Outstanding	244.73
Equity Value Per Share	27.09