Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Electric Power Company, In... (AEP)

$84.58

+1.14 (+1.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 26.40 | 84.58 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 16,195.7015,561.4014,918.5016,79219,639.5020,693.5521,804.1622,974.3824,207.4125,506.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,423.905,720.806,313.106,849.106,909.907,803.188,221.978,663.249,128.199,618.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,023.502,980.703,406.303,802.703,707.104,228.824,455.784,694.924,946.905,212.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,400.402,740.102,906.803,046.403,202.803,574.353,766.193,968.324,181.304,405.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 393.20449.50593.50623.80696.90685.29722.07760.82801.65844.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,926.501,705.102,0282,063.101,207.402,271.332,393.242,521.682,657.022,799.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 921.101,169.201,310989.20888.901,340.891,412.861,488.681,568.581,652.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,874.302,085.801,709.702,054.602,6132,565.062,702.722,847.773,000.613,161.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,357-6,143.70-6,316-5,764.10-100.70-6,452.56-6,798.86-7,163.75-7,548.23-7,953.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 84.58
Beta 0.452
Diluted Shares Outstanding 513.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.74
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.918
Total Debt 39,650.30
Total Equity 43,430.53
Total Capital 83,080.83
Debt Weighting 47.72
Equity Weighting 52.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 16,195.7015,561.4014,918.5016,79219,639.5020,693.5521,804.1622,974.3824,207.4125,506.61
EBITDA 5,423.905,720.806,313.106,849.106,909.907,803.188,221.978,663.249,128.199,618.10
EBIT 3,023.502,980.703,406.303,802.703,707.104,228.824,455.784,694.924,946.905,212.40
Tax Rate 2.52%-4.70%-2.52%0.95%4.74%0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%
EBIAT 2,947.363,120.903,492.013,766.673,531.274,220.464,446.974,685.634,937.115,202.08
Depreciation 2,400.402,740.102,906.803,046.403,202.803,574.353,766.193,968.324,181.304,405.71
Accounts Receivable -221.40-322.90-35.10855.70-1,063.93-121.90-128.44-135.34-142.60
Inventories --248.10-140.80320.80100.30-451.99-71.97-75.83-79.90-84.19
Accounts Payable -211.50-376.10344.90558.40-47.94137.67145.05152.84161.04
Capital Expenditure -6,357-6,143.70-6,316-5,764.10-100.70-6,452.56-6,798.86-7,163.75-7,548.23-7,953.34
UFCF -1,009.24-97.90-756.991,679.578,147.77-221.621,358.091,430.981,507.781,588.70
WACC
PV UFCF -211.691,239.141,247.151,255.211,263.33
SUM PV UFCF 4,793.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,620.48
Terminal Value 60,240.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 47,903.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 52,696.36
Net Debt 39,140.90
Equity Value 13,555.46
Shares Outstanding 513.48
Equity Value Per Share 26.40