Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
American Electric Power Company, In... (AEP)
$84.58
+1.14 (+1.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 16,195.70 | 15,561.40 | 14,918.50 | 16,792 | 19,639.50 | 20,693.55 | 21,804.16 | 22,974.38 | 24,207.41 | 25,506.61 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,423.90 | 5,720.80 | 6,313.10 | 6,849.10 | 6,909.90 | 7,803.18 | 8,221.97 | 8,663.24 | 9,128.19 | 9,618.10 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,023.50 | 2,980.70 | 3,406.30 | 3,802.70 | 3,707.10 | 4,228.82 | 4,455.78 | 4,694.92 | 4,946.90 | 5,212.40 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,400.40 | 2,740.10 | 2,906.80 | 3,046.40 | 3,202.80 | 3,574.35 | 3,766.19 | 3,968.32 | 4,181.30 | 4,405.71 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 393.20 | 449.50 | 593.50 | 623.80 | 696.90 | 685.29 | 722.07 | 760.82 | 801.65 | 844.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,926.50 | 1,705.10 | 2,028 | 2,063.10 | 1,207.40 | 2,271.33 | 2,393.24 | 2,521.68 | 2,657.02 | 2,799.62 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 921.10 | 1,169.20 | 1,310 | 989.20 | 888.90 | 1,340.89 | 1,412.86 | 1,488.68 | 1,568.58 | 1,652.77 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,874.30 | 2,085.80 | 1,709.70 | 2,054.60 | 2,613 | 2,565.06 | 2,702.72 | 2,847.77 | 3,000.61 | 3,161.66 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -6,357 | -6,143.70 | -6,316 | -5,764.10 | -100.70 | -6,452.56 | -6,798.86 | -7,163.75 | -7,548.23 | -7,953.34 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 84.58 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.452 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 513.48 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.74 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.35% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 5.918 |
Total Debt | 39,650.30 |
Total Equity | 43,430.53 |
Total Capital | 83,080.83 |
Debt Weighting | 47.72 |
Equity Weighting | 52.28 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 16,195.70 | 15,561.40 | 14,918.50 | 16,792 | 19,639.50 | 20,693.55 | 21,804.16 | 22,974.38 | 24,207.41 | 25,506.61 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 5,423.90 | 5,720.80 | 6,313.10 | 6,849.10 | 6,909.90 | 7,803.18 | 8,221.97 | 8,663.24 | 9,128.19 | 9,618.10 |
EBIT | 3,023.50 | 2,980.70 | 3,406.30 | 3,802.70 | 3,707.10 | 4,228.82 | 4,455.78 | 4,694.92 | 4,946.90 | 5,212.40 |
Tax Rate | 2.52% | -4.70% | -2.52% | 0.95% | 4.74% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
EBIAT | 2,947.36 | 3,120.90 | 3,492.01 | 3,766.67 | 3,531.27 | 4,220.46 | 4,446.97 | 4,685.63 | 4,937.11 | 5,202.08 |
Depreciation | 2,400.40 | 2,740.10 | 2,906.80 | 3,046.40 | 3,202.80 | 3,574.35 | 3,766.19 | 3,968.32 | 4,181.30 | 4,405.71 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 221.40 | -322.90 | -35.10 | 855.70 | -1,063.93 | -121.90 | -128.44 | -135.34 | -142.60 |
Inventories | - | -248.10 | -140.80 | 320.80 | 100.30 | -451.99 | -71.97 | -75.83 | -79.90 | -84.19 |
Accounts Payable | - | 211.50 | -376.10 | 344.90 | 558.40 | -47.94 | 137.67 | 145.05 | 152.84 | 161.04 |
Capital Expenditure | -6,357 | -6,143.70 | -6,316 | -5,764.10 | -100.70 | -6,452.56 | -6,798.86 | -7,163.75 | -7,548.23 | -7,953.34 |
UFCF | -1,009.24 | -97.90 | -756.99 | 1,679.57 | 8,147.77 | -221.62 | 1,358.09 | 1,430.98 | 1,507.78 | 1,588.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -211.69 | 1,239.14 | 1,247.15 | 1,255.21 | 1,263.33 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,793.14 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.69 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,620.48 |
Terminal Value | 60,240.79 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 47,903.22 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 52,696.36 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 39,140.90 |
Equity Value | 13,555.46 |
Shares Outstanding | 513.48 |
Equity Value Per Share | 26.40 |