Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
$77.02
-0.65 (-0.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,758 | 22,307 | 22,147 | 22,106 | 19,140 | 18,575.54 | 18,027.74 | 17,496.08 | 16,980.11 | 16,479.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,205 | 4,445 | 4,159 | 5,322 | 4,830 | 3,987.86 | 3,870.26 | 3,756.12 | 3,645.35 | 3,537.85 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 3,987.86 | 3,870.26 | 3,756.12 | 3,645.35 | 3,537.85 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 87,232 | 96,158 | 111,023 | 103,747 | 79,684 | 82,435.44 | 80,004.35 | 77,644.95 | 75,355.13 | 73,132.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 851 | 828 | 796 | 693 | 647 | 658.78 | 639.35 | 620.50 | 602.20 | 584.44 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 77.02 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.934 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 637.65 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.938 |
| Total Debt | 7,442 |
| Total Equity | 49,112.19 |
| Total Capital | 56,554.19 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,758 | 22,307 | 22,147 | 22,106 | 19,140 | 18,575.54 | 18,027.74 | 17,496.08 | 16,980.11 | 16,479.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,205 | 4,445 | 4,159 | 5,322 | 4,830 | 3,987.86 | 3,870.26 | 3,756.12 | 3,645.35 | 3,537.85 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 3,987.86 | 3,870.26 | 3,756.12 | 3,645.35 | 3,537.85 |
| Tax Rate | 26.69% | 25.67% | -14.88% | 18.73% | 9.26% | 13.09% | 13.09% | 13.09% | 13.09% | 13.09% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 3,465.69 | 3,363.48 | 3,264.29 | 3,168.02 | 3,074.60 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 23 | 32 | 103 | 46 | -11.78 | 19.43 | 18.86 | 18.30 | 17.76 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 3,453.91 | 3,382.91 | 3,283.15 | 3,186.32 | 3,092.36 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 3,194.22 | 2,893.33 | 2,596.88 | 2,330.80 | 2,091.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 13,107.21 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.13 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,154.20 |
| Terminal Value | 51,455.18 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 34,809.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 47,916.74 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,499 |
| Equity Value | 44,417.74 |
| Shares Outstanding | 637.65 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 69.66 |