Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)

$54.22

-2.69 (-4.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4.09 | 54.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 127.36140.84160.76137.18162.64174.27186.74200.10214.41229.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2.934.74-16.18-16.4010.39-3.47-3.72-3.99-4.27-4.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -11.59-12.93-33.86-21.196.52-17.70-18.97-20.32-21.78-23.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.5317.6717.684.793.8614.2315.2416.3417.5018.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 39.9440.7746.6599.1896.9777.1282.6388.5594.88101.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.3929.9237.9928.1026.8433.0235.3837.9140.6243.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22.043.891.186.943.683.954.234.534.85
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.404.7213.406.359.7710.0810.8011.5712.4013.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15.06-5.51-3.42-1.39-1.20-6.83-7.32-7.85-8.41-9.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 54.22
Beta 1.085
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.007
Total Debt 10.70
Total Equity 1,381.69
Total Capital 1,392.39
Debt Weighting 0.77
Equity Weighting 99.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 127.36140.84160.76137.18162.64174.27186.74200.10214.41229.75
EBITDA 2.934.74-16.18-16.4010.39-3.47-3.72-3.99-4.27-4.58
EBIT -11.59-12.93-33.86-21.196.52-17.70-18.97-20.32-21.78-23.33
Tax Rate 28.02%-1.71%-0.59%0.98%0.51%5.44%5.44%5.44%5.44%5.44%
EBIAT -8.34-13.15-34.06-20.986.49-16.74-17.93-19.22-20.59-22.06
Depreciation 14.5317.6717.684.793.8614.2315.2416.3417.5018.76
Accounts Receivable --13.53-8.079.901.25-6.17-2.36-2.53-2.71-2.91
Inventories --0.04-1.842.71-5.763.26-0.26-0.28-0.30-0.32
Accounts Payable --3.688.69-7.063.420.310.720.770.830.89
Capital Expenditure -15.06-5.51-3.42-1.39-1.20-6.83-7.32-7.85-8.41-9.01
UFCF -8.87-18.25-21.03-12.038.07-11.95-11.92-12.77-13.68-14.66
WACC
PV UFCF -10.97-10.04-9.88-9.71-9.56
SUM PV UFCF -50.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -14.96
Terminal Value -215.50
Present Value of Terminal Value -140.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -190.60
Net Debt -86.27
Equity Value -104.34
Shares Outstanding 25.48
Equity Value Per Share -4.09