Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
$54.22
-2.69 (-4.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 127.36 | 140.84 | 160.76 | 137.18 | 162.64 | 174.27 | 186.74 | 200.10 | 214.41 | 229.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2.93 | 4.74 | -16.18 | -16.40 | 10.39 | -3.47 | -3.72 | -3.99 | -4.27 | -4.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -11.59 | -12.93 | -33.86 | -21.19 | 6.52 | -17.70 | -18.97 | -20.32 | -21.78 | -23.33 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.53 | 17.67 | 17.68 | 4.79 | 3.86 | 14.23 | 15.24 | 16.34 | 17.50 | 18.76 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 39.94 | 40.77 | 46.65 | 99.18 | 96.97 | 77.12 | 82.63 | 88.55 | 94.88 | 101.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 16.39 | 29.92 | 37.99 | 28.10 | 26.84 | 33.02 | 35.38 | 37.91 | 40.62 | 43.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2 | 2.04 | 3.89 | 1.18 | 6.94 | 3.68 | 3.95 | 4.23 | 4.53 | 4.85 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8.40 | 4.72 | 13.40 | 6.35 | 9.77 | 10.08 | 10.80 | 11.57 | 12.40 | 13.29 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.06 | -5.51 | -3.42 | -1.39 | -1.20 | -6.83 | -7.32 | -7.85 | -8.41 | -9.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 54.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.085 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 25.48 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.51 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.007 |
| Total Debt | 10.70 |
| Total Equity | 1,381.69 |
| Total Capital | 1,392.39 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.77 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.23 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 127.36 | 140.84 | 160.76 | 137.18 | 162.64 | 174.27 | 186.74 | 200.10 | 214.41 | 229.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2.93 | 4.74 | -16.18 | -16.40 | 10.39 | -3.47 | -3.72 | -3.99 | -4.27 | -4.58 |
| EBIT | -11.59 | -12.93 | -33.86 | -21.19 | 6.52 | -17.70 | -18.97 | -20.32 | -21.78 | -23.33 |
| Tax Rate | 28.02% | -1.71% | -0.59% | 0.98% | 0.51% | 5.44% | 5.44% | 5.44% | 5.44% | 5.44% |
| EBIAT | -8.34 | -13.15 | -34.06 | -20.98 | 6.49 | -16.74 | -17.93 | -19.22 | -20.59 | -22.06 |
| Depreciation | 14.53 | 17.67 | 17.68 | 4.79 | 3.86 | 14.23 | 15.24 | 16.34 | 17.50 | 18.76 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -13.53 | -8.07 | 9.90 | 1.25 | -6.17 | -2.36 | -2.53 | -2.71 | -2.91 |
| Inventories | - | -0.04 | -1.84 | 2.71 | -5.76 | 3.26 | -0.26 | -0.28 | -0.30 | -0.32 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.68 | 8.69 | -7.06 | 3.42 | 0.31 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.06 | -5.51 | -3.42 | -1.39 | -1.20 | -6.83 | -7.32 | -7.85 | -8.41 | -9.01 |
| UFCF | -8.87 | -18.25 | -21.03 | -12.03 | 8.07 | -11.95 | -11.92 | -12.77 | -13.68 | -14.66 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -10.97 | -10.04 | -9.88 | -9.71 | -9.56 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -50.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -14.96 |
| Terminal Value | -215.50 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -140.44 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -190.60 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -86.27 |
| Equity Value | -104.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.48 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.09 |