Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO)

$7.49

-0.03 (-0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -527.87 | 7.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 345.28529.641,056.392,454.532,970.595,244.779,259.9716,349.0628,865.3050,963.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1.2337.08-12.55481.83541.34454.28802.051,416.072,500.174,414.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.2325.79-95223.77190.1631.1655.0197.12171.47302.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -11.2882.45258.05351.18423.12747.041,318.952,328.704,111.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 0.959.7799.96149.6346.27201.76356.23628.941,110.441,960.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -26.97176.64359.90359.15636.791,124.301,985.013,504.676,187.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -18.2158.78123.10127.75240.20424.08748.741,321.952,333.98
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.0426.50191.04248.03222.50426.86753.651,330.622,349.294,147.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.95-21.33-39.76-203.31-391.42-337.05-595.09-1,050.66-1,855.01-3,275.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.49
Beta 1.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding 138.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.227
Total Debt 2,328.82
Total Equity 1,041.02
Total Capital 3,369.84
Debt Weighting 69.11
Equity Weighting 30.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 345.28529.641,056.392,454.532,970.595,244.779,259.9716,349.0628,865.3050,963.49
EBITDA -1.2337.08-12.55481.83541.34454.28802.051,416.072,500.174,414.20
EBIT -1.2325.79-95223.77190.1631.1655.0197.12171.47302.74
Tax Rate 28.46%2.35%16.92%18.22%35.19%20.23%20.23%20.23%20.23%20.23%
EBIAT -0.8825.19-78.93183.01123.2424.8543.8877.48136.79241.51
Depreciation -11.2882.45258.05351.18423.12747.041,318.952,328.704,111.46
Accounts Receivable ---149.67-183.250.75-277.65-487.50-860.72-1,519.65-2,683.04
Inventories ---40.57-64.31-4.66-112.44-183.88-324.66-573.21-1,012.03
Accounts Payable -26.46164.5456.99-25.52204.36326.79576.971,018.671,798.53
Capital Expenditure -9.95-21.33-39.76-203.31-391.42-337.05-595.09-1,050.66-1,855.01-3,275.13
UFCF -10.8341.60-61.9447.1853.56-74.81-148.76-262.64-463.71-818.72
WACC
PV UFCF -71.27-135.03-227.14-382.08-642.71
SUM PV UFCF -1,458.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) -851.47
Terminal Value -88,694.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -69,626.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -71,085.10
Net Debt 2,282.55
Equity Value -73,367.65
Shares Outstanding 138.99
Equity Value Per Share -527.87