Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Senmiao Technology Limited (AIHS)
$0.9727
-0.04 (-3.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.49 | 2.92 | 15.66 | 6.16 | 4.91 | 15.30 | 47.62 | 148.25 | 461.53 | 1,436.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -9.20 | -4.16 | -6.51 | -4.88 | 1.60 | -63.90 | -198.94 | -619.35 | -1,928.18 | -6,002.87 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -9.86 | -4.49 | -8.17 | -9.57 | -0.47 | -72.29 | -225.05 | -700.63 | -2,181.22 | -6,790.65 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.66 | 0.33 | 1.66 | 4.68 | 2.07 | 8.39 | 26.11 | 81.28 | 253.04 | 787.78 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 11.14 | 5.02 | 0.83 | 4.45 | 1.19 | 77.24 | 240.46 | 748.60 | 2,330.57 | 7,255.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0 | 3.87 | 3.49 | 3.88 | 2.41 | 8.18 | 25.48 | 79.31 | 246.93 | 768.74 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | 1.51 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 2.52 | 7.85 | 24.44 | 76.08 | 236.84 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 1.36 | 4.23 | 13.16 | 40.97 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0 | -0.50 | -0.97 | -2.52 | -3.37 | -4.08 | -12.69 | -39.51 | -123.01 | -382.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.9,727 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.517 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 90.42 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.53% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.080 |
| Total Debt | 1.12 |
| Total Equity | 5.57 |
| Total Capital | 6.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.49 | 2.92 | 15.66 | 6.16 | 4.91 | 15.30 | 47.62 | 148.25 | 461.53 | 1,436.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -9.20 | -4.16 | -6.51 | -4.88 | 1.60 | -63.90 | -198.94 | -619.35 | -1,928.18 | -6,002.87 |
| EBIT | -9.86 | -4.49 | -8.17 | -9.57 | -0.47 | -72.29 | -225.05 | -700.63 | -2,181.22 | -6,790.65 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | -0.65% | -100.98% | 17.69% | 90.42% | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.30% |
| EBIAT | -9.86 | -4.52 | -16.42 | -7.87 | -0.05 | -71.35 | -222.13 | -691.55 | -2,152.94 | -6,702.61 |
| Depreciation | 0.66 | 0.33 | 1.66 | 4.68 | 2.07 | 8.39 | 26.11 | 81.28 | 253.04 | 787.78 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.87 | 0.38 | -0.39 | 1.47 | -5.77 | -17.29 | -53.84 | -167.61 | -521.81 |
| Inventories | - | - | 0.51 | 0.87 | -0.16 | -2.23 | -5.33 | -16.59 | -51.64 | -160.77 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | 0.22 | -0.17 | -0.19 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 2.87 | 8.93 | 27.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0 | -0.50 | -0.97 | -2.52 | -3.37 | -4.08 | -12.69 | -39.51 | -123.01 | -382.94 |
| UFCF | -9.20 | -8.56 | -14.62 | -5.40 | -0.22 | -74.62 | -230.41 | -717.33 | -2,233.22 | -6,952.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -70.97 | -208.40 | -617.01 | -1,826.82 | -5,408.75 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -8,131.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -7,091.59 |
| Terminal Value | -225,129.77 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -175,140.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -183,272.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -0.07 |
| Equity Value | -183,272.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -32,001.48 |