Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Senmiao Technology Limited (AIHS)

$0.9727

-0.04 (-3.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -32,001.48 | 0.9727 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 0.492.9215.666.164.9115.3047.62148.25461.531,436.86
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -9.20-4.16-6.51-4.881.60-63.90-198.94-619.35-1,928.18-6,002.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -9.86-4.49-8.17-9.57-0.47-72.29-225.05-700.63-2,181.22-6,790.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.660.331.664.682.078.3926.1181.28253.04787.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 11.145.020.834.451.1977.24240.46748.602,330.577,255.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 03.873.493.882.418.1825.4879.31246.93768.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -1.5110.130.292.527.8524.4476.08236.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -0.160.380.200.010.441.364.2313.1640.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0-0.50-0.97-2.52-3.37-4.08-12.69-39.51-123.01-382.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.9,727
Beta 0.517
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 90.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.080
Total Debt 1.12
Total Equity 5.57
Total Capital 6.69
Debt Weighting 16.70
Equity Weighting 83.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 0.492.9215.666.164.9115.3047.62148.25461.531,436.86
EBITDA -9.20-4.16-6.51-4.881.60-63.90-198.94-619.35-1,928.18-6,002.87
EBIT -9.86-4.49-8.17-9.57-0.47-72.29-225.05-700.63-2,181.22-6,790.65
Tax Rate 0.00%-0.65%-100.98%17.69%90.42%1.30%1.30%1.30%1.30%1.30%
EBIAT -9.86-4.52-16.42-7.87-0.05-71.35-222.13-691.55-2,152.94-6,702.61
Depreciation 0.660.331.664.682.078.3926.1181.28253.04787.78
Accounts Receivable --3.870.38-0.391.47-5.77-17.29-53.84-167.61-521.81
Inventories --0.510.87-0.16-2.23-5.33-16.59-51.64-160.77
Accounts Payable --0.22-0.17-0.190.420.922.878.9327.81
Capital Expenditure -0-0.50-0.97-2.52-3.37-4.08-12.69-39.51-123.01-382.94
UFCF -9.20-8.56-14.62-5.40-0.22-74.62-230.41-717.33-2,233.22-6,952.54
WACC
PV UFCF -70.97-208.40-617.01-1,826.82-5,408.75
SUM PV UFCF -8,131.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) -7,091.59
Terminal Value -225,129.77
Present Value of Terminal Value -175,140.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -183,272.42
Net Debt -0.07
Equity Value -183,272.35
Shares Outstanding 5.73
Equity Value Per Share -32,001.48