Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Applied Industrial Technologies, In... (AIT)
$157.96
+2.86 (+1.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,472.74 | 3,245.65 | 3,235.92 | 3,810.68 | 4,412.79 | 4,707.61 | 5,022.12 | 5,357.64 | 5,715.58 | 6,097.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 359.09 | 285.52 | 312.33 | 411.41 | 526.22 | 484.98 | 517.38 | 551.95 | 588.82 | 628.16 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 296.98 | 222.77 | 257.18 | 357.86 | 473.15 | 409.34 | 436.69 | 465.86 | 496.98 | 530.19 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 62.12 | 62.75 | 55.15 | 53.56 | 53.07 | 75.64 | 80.70 | 86.09 | 91.84 | 97.98 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 108.22 | 268.55 | 257.74 | 184.47 | 344.04 | 301.22 | 321.34 | 342.81 | 365.72 | 390.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 540.90 | 450 | 516.32 | 656.43 | 708.40 | 740.75 | 790.24 | 843.03 | 899.35 | 959.44 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 447.56 | 389.15 | 362.55 | 449.82 | 501.18 | 557.79 | 595.05 | 634.81 | 677.22 | 722.46 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 237.29 | 186.27 | 208.16 | 259.46 | 301.68 | 307.41 | 327.95 | 349.86 | 373.23 | 398.17 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -18.97 | -20.11 | -15.85 | -18.12 | -26.48 | -25.72 | -27.44 | -29.27 | -31.22 | -33.31 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 157.96 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.211 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 39.22 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.91 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.07% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.267 |
Total Debt | 622.10 |
Total Equity | 6,195.19 |
Total Capital | 6,817.29 |
Debt Weighting | 9.13 |
Equity Weighting | 90.87 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,472.74 | 3,245.65 | 3,235.92 | 3,810.68 | 4,412.79 | 4,707.61 | 5,022.12 | 5,357.64 | 5,715.58 | 6,097.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 359.09 | 285.52 | 312.33 | 411.41 | 526.22 | 484.98 | 517.38 | 551.95 | 588.82 | 628.16 |
EBIT | 296.98 | 222.77 | 257.18 | 357.86 | 473.15 | 409.34 | 436.69 | 465.86 | 496.98 | 530.19 |
Tax Rate | 25.96% | 56.47% | 18.25% | 21.95% | 22.91% | 29.11% | 29.11% | 29.11% | 29.11% | 29.11% |
EBIAT | 219.88 | 96.96 | 210.26 | 279.32 | 364.73 | 290.19 | 309.58 | 330.26 | 352.32 | 375.86 |
Depreciation | 62.12 | 62.75 | 55.15 | 53.56 | 53.07 | 75.64 | 80.70 | 86.09 | 91.84 | 97.98 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 90.90 | -66.32 | -140.11 | -51.97 | -32.35 | -49.49 | -52.79 | -56.32 | -60.08 |
Inventories | - | 58.40 | 26.60 | -87.27 | -51.36 | -56.60 | -37.27 | -39.75 | -42.41 | -45.24 |
Accounts Payable | - | -51.02 | 21.89 | 51.30 | 42.22 | 5.72 | 20.54 | 21.91 | 23.37 | 24.94 |
Capital Expenditure | -18.97 | -20.11 | -15.85 | -18.12 | -26.48 | -25.72 | -27.44 | -29.27 | -31.22 | -33.31 |
UFCF | 263.03 | 237.89 | 231.72 | 138.67 | 330.22 | 256.88 | 296.62 | 316.44 | 337.58 | 360.13 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 234.36 | 246.89 | 240.29 | 233.87 | 227.62 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,183.04 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.61 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 367.34 |
Terminal Value | 4,827.01 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,050.90 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,233.93 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 278.06 |
Equity Value | 3,955.87 |
Shares Outstanding | 39.22 |
Equity Value Per Share | 100.86 |