Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Applied Industrial Technologies, In... (AIT)

$157.96

+2.86 (+1.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 100.86 | 157.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,472.743,245.653,235.923,810.684,412.794,707.615,022.125,357.645,715.586,097.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 359.09285.52312.33411.41526.22484.98517.38551.95588.82628.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 296.98222.77257.18357.86473.15409.34436.69465.86496.98530.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 62.1262.7555.1553.5653.0775.6480.7086.0991.8497.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 108.22268.55257.74184.47344.04301.22321.34342.81365.72390.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 540.90450516.32656.43708.40740.75790.24843.03899.35959.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 447.56389.15362.55449.82501.18557.79595.05634.81677.22722.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 237.29186.27208.16259.46301.68307.41327.95349.86373.23398.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.97-20.11-15.85-18.12-26.48-25.72-27.44-29.27-31.22-33.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 157.96
Beta 1.211
Diluted Shares Outstanding 39.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.267
Total Debt 622.10
Total Equity 6,195.19
Total Capital 6,817.29
Debt Weighting 9.13
Equity Weighting 90.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,472.743,245.653,235.923,810.684,412.794,707.615,022.125,357.645,715.586,097.43
EBITDA 359.09285.52312.33411.41526.22484.98517.38551.95588.82628.16
EBIT 296.98222.77257.18357.86473.15409.34436.69465.86496.98530.19
Tax Rate 25.96%56.47%18.25%21.95%22.91%29.11%29.11%29.11%29.11%29.11%
EBIAT 219.8896.96210.26279.32364.73290.19309.58330.26352.32375.86
Depreciation 62.1262.7555.1553.5653.0775.6480.7086.0991.8497.98
Accounts Receivable -90.90-66.32-140.11-51.97-32.35-49.49-52.79-56.32-60.08
Inventories -58.4026.60-87.27-51.36-56.60-37.27-39.75-42.41-45.24
Accounts Payable --51.0221.8951.3042.225.7220.5421.9123.3724.94
Capital Expenditure -18.97-20.11-15.85-18.12-26.48-25.72-27.44-29.27-31.22-33.31
UFCF 263.03237.89231.72138.67330.22256.88296.62316.44337.58360.13
WACC
PV UFCF 234.36246.89240.29233.87227.62
SUM PV UFCF 1,183.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 367.34
Terminal Value 4,827.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,050.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,233.93
Net Debt 278.06
Equity Value 3,955.87
Shares Outstanding 39.22
Equity Value Per Share 100.86