Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Applied Industrial Technologies, In... (AIT)

$157.96

+2.86 (+1.84%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 100.86 | 157.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,472.74	3,245.65	3,235.92	3,810.68	4,412.79	4,707.61	5,022.12	5,357.64	5,715.58	6,097.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	359.09	285.52	312.33	411.41	526.22	484.98	517.38	551.95	588.82	628.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	296.98	222.77	257.18	357.86	473.15	409.34	436.69	465.86	496.98	530.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	62.12	62.75	55.15	53.56	53.07	75.64	80.70	86.09	91.84	97.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	108.22	268.55	257.74	184.47	344.04	301.22	321.34	342.81	365.72	390.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	540.90	450	516.32	656.43	708.40	740.75	790.24	843.03	899.35	959.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	447.56	389.15	362.55	449.82	501.18	557.79	595.05	634.81	677.22	722.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	237.29	186.27	208.16	259.46	301.68	307.41	327.95	349.86	373.23	398.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-18.97	-20.11	-15.85	-18.12	-26.48	-25.72	-27.44	-29.27	-31.22	-33.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 157.96
Beta	1.211
Diluted Shares Outstanding	39.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.91
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.267
Total Debt	622.10
Total Equity	6,195.19
Total Capital	6,817.29
Debt Weighting	9.13
Equity Weighting	90.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,472.74	3,245.65	3,235.92	3,810.68	4,412.79	4,707.61	5,022.12	5,357.64	5,715.58	6,097.43
EBITDA	359.09	285.52	312.33	411.41	526.22	484.98	517.38	551.95	588.82	628.16
EBIT	296.98	222.77	257.18	357.86	473.15	409.34	436.69	465.86	496.98	530.19
Tax Rate	25.96%	56.47%	18.25%	21.95%	22.91%	29.11%	29.11%	29.11%	29.11%	29.11%
EBIAT	219.88	96.96	210.26	279.32	364.73	290.19	309.58	330.26	352.32	375.86
Depreciation	62.12	62.75	55.15	53.56	53.07	75.64	80.70	86.09	91.84	97.98
Accounts Receivable	-	90.90	-66.32	-140.11	-51.97	-32.35	-49.49	-52.79	-56.32	-60.08
Inventories	-	58.40	26.60	-87.27	-51.36	-56.60	-37.27	-39.75	-42.41	-45.24
Accounts Payable	-	-51.02	21.89	51.30	42.22	5.72	20.54	21.91	23.37	24.94
Capital Expenditure	-18.97	-20.11	-15.85	-18.12	-26.48	-25.72	-27.44	-29.27	-31.22	-33.31
UFCF	263.03	237.89	231.72	138.67	330.22	256.88	296.62	316.44	337.58	360.13
WACC
PV UFCF						234.36	246.89	240.29	233.87	227.62
SUM PV UFCF										1,183.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.61
Free cash flow (t + 1)	367.34
Terminal Value	4,827.01
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,050.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,233.93
Net Debt	278.06
Equity Value	3,955.87
Shares Outstanding	39.22
Equity Value Per Share	100.86