Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD)

$40.41

-0.79 (-1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 53.11 | 40.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,877.201,895.901,981.502,072.702,1882,273.752,362.862,455.472,551.702,651.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 190.40295.30302.10275.60276.50304.22316.14328.53341.41354.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 117.80223227.60210.30215.10225.11233.93243.10252.62262.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 72.6072.3074.5065.3061.4079.1182.2285.4488.7992.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 555735.30932.601,156.50711926.36962.661,000.391,039.601,080.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 300.90460.30427.10411.10436.90462.32480.44499.27518.83539.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 136.4014.9024101046.4048.2250.1152.0754.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 100.9088.70127.3099.10132.20124.15129.02134.07139.33144.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -46.40-43.20-42.90-54.60-37.30-51.18-53.19-55.27-57.44-59.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 40.41
Beta 0.454
Diluted Shares Outstanding 81.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.31
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.022
Total Debt 502.60
Total Equity 3,309.58
Total Capital 3,812.18
Debt Weighting 13.18
Equity Weighting 86.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,877.201,895.901,981.502,072.702,1882,273.752,362.862,455.472,551.702,651.70
EBITDA 190.40295.30302.10275.60276.50304.22316.14328.53341.41354.79
EBIT 117.80223227.60210.30215.10225.11233.93243.10252.62262.52
Tax Rate 110.59%27.20%26.52%23.58%26.31%42.84%42.84%42.84%42.84%42.84%
EBIAT -12.47162.34167.23160.70158.51128.67133.71138.95144.40150.06
Depreciation 72.6072.3074.5065.3061.4079.1182.2285.4488.7992.27
Accounts Receivable --159.4033.2016-25.80-25.42-18.12-18.83-19.57-20.33
Inventories -121.50-9.1014-0-36.40-1.82-1.89-1.96-2.04
Accounts Payable --12.2038.60-28.2033.10-8.054.875.065.255.46
Capital Expenditure -46.40-43.20-42.90-54.60-37.30-51.18-53.19-55.27-57.44-59.69
UFCF 13.73141.34261.53173.20189.9186.74147.67153.46159.47165.72
WACC
PV UFCF 82.13132.37130.24128.14126.08
SUM PV UFCF 598.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) 169.04
Terminal Value 4,669.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,552.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,151.50
Net Debt -197.80
Equity Value 4,349.30
Shares Outstanding 81.90
Equity Value Per Share 53.11