Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arkema S.A. (AKE.PA)
92.68 €
+0.94 (+1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,738 | 7,884 | 9,519 | 11,550 | 9,514 | 9,863.01 | 10,224.81 | 10,599.90 | 10,988.74 | 11,391.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,508 | 1,222 | 1,867 | 2,120 | 1,501 | 1,706.36 | 1,768.95 | 1,833.84 | 1,901.11 | 1,970.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 858 | 474 | 1,050 | 1,413 | 811 | 939.35 | 973.81 | 1,009.53 | 1,046.57 | 1,084.96 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 650 | 748 | 817 | 707 | 690 | 767 | 795.14 | 824.31 | 854.55 | 885.89 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,424 | 1,627 | 2,285 | 1,592 | 2,077 | 1,904.60 | 1,974.46 | 2,046.89 | 2,121.98 | 2,199.82 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,451 | 1,326 | 1,817 | 1,605 | 1,573 | 1,636.12 | 1,696.14 | 1,758.36 | 1,822.86 | 1,889.73 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,014 | 881 | 1,284 | 1,399 | 1,208 | 1,204.81 | 1,249.01 | 1,294.83 | 1,342.33 | 1,391.57 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 905 | 987 | 1,274 | 1,149 | 1,036 | 1,126.30 | 1,167.61 | 1,210.45 | 1,254.85 | 1,300.88 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -661 | -605 | -763 | -730 | -634 | -714.83 | -741.06 | -768.24 | -796.42 | -825.64 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 92.68 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.223 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 74.65 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 31.59 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.95% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.092 |
Total Debt | 4,975 |
Total Equity | 6,918.30 |
Total Capital | 11,893.30 |
Debt Weighting | 41.83 |
Equity Weighting | 58.17 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,738 | 7,884 | 9,519 | 11,550 | 9,514 | 9,863.01 | 10,224.81 | 10,599.90 | 10,988.74 | 11,391.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,508 | 1,222 | 1,867 | 2,120 | 1,501 | 1,706.36 | 1,768.95 | 1,833.84 | 1,901.11 | 1,970.85 |
EBIT | 858 | 474 | 1,050 | 1,413 | 811 | 939.35 | 973.81 | 1,009.53 | 1,046.57 | 1,084.96 |
Tax Rate | 21.08% | 35.28% | 21.90% | 20.90% | 31.59% | 26.15% | 26.15% | 26.15% | 26.15% | 26.15% |
EBIAT | 677.17 | 306.76 | 820.08 | 1,117.66 | 554.82 | 693.72 | 719.17 | 745.55 | 772.90 | 801.25 |
Depreciation | 650 | 748 | 817 | 707 | 690 | 767 | 795.14 | 824.31 | 854.55 | 885.89 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 125 | -491 | 212 | 32 | -63.12 | -60.02 | -62.22 | -64.50 | -66.87 |
Inventories | - | 133 | -403 | -115 | 191 | 3.19 | -44.20 | -45.82 | -47.50 | -49.24 |
Accounts Payable | - | 82 | 287 | -125 | -113 | 90.30 | 41.32 | 42.83 | 44.40 | 46.03 |
Capital Expenditure | -661 | -605 | -763 | -730 | -634 | -714.83 | -741.06 | -768.24 | -796.42 | -825.64 |
UFCF | 666.17 | 789.76 | 267.08 | 1,066.66 | 720.82 | 776.25 | 710.35 | 736.41 | 763.43 | 791.43 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 724.73 | 619.18 | 599.28 | 580.02 | 561.39 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,084.59 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.11 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 807.26 |
Terminal Value | 15,797.63 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,205.78 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 14,290.37 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,930 |
Equity Value | 11,360.37 |
Shares Outstanding | 74.65 |
Equity Value Per Share | 152.19 |