Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Arkema S.A. (AKE.PA)

93.76 €

-0.60 (-0.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 187.76 | 93.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,3268,8168,7387,8849,5199,898.9310,294.0310,704.9011,132.1611,576.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,3141,3891,3891,3162,4951,788.461,859.851,934.082,011.272,091.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8138817395681,6781,050.231,092.141,135.741,181.071,228.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 501508650748817738.24767.70798.34830.21863.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,4551,4481,4241,6272,3941,900.261,976.112,054.982,1372,222.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,1451,1361,0148811,2831,245.191,294.891,346.571,400.321,456.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9651,0379059871,2741,180.211,227.311,276.301,327.241,380.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -459-591-661-605-763-702.24-730.27-759.42-789.73-821.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 93.76
Beta 1.271
Diluted Shares Outstanding 76.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.650
Total Debt 2,762
Total Equity 7,164.14
Total Capital 9,926.14
Debt Weighting 27.83
Equity Weighting 72.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,3268,8168,7387,8849,5199,898.9310,294.0310,704.9011,132.1611,576.48
EBITDA 1,3141,3891,3891,3162,4951,788.461,859.851,934.082,011.272,091.55
EBIT 8138817395681,6781,050.231,092.141,135.741,181.071,228.21
Tax Rate 22.48%14.72%21.08%35.28%21.90%23.09%23.09%23.09%23.09%23.09%
EBIAT 630.27751.35583.25367.591,310.56807.73839.97873.50908.36944.62
Depreciation 501508650748817738.24767.70798.34830.21863.34
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -9122133-40237.81-49.70-51.68-53.75-55.89
Accounts Payable -72-13282287-93.7947.1148.9950.9452.97
Capital Expenditure -459-591-661-605-763-702.24-730.27-759.42-789.73-821.25
UFCF 672.27749.35562.25725.591,249.56787.74874.81909.73946.04983.80
WACC
PV UFCF 729.06749.31721.17694.08668.01
SUM PV UFCF 3,561.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,003.47
Terminal Value 16,586.31
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,262.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,823.89
Net Debt 477
Equity Value 14,346.89
Shares Outstanding 76.41
Equity Value Per Share 187.76