Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Arkema S.A. (AKE.PA)
93.76 €
-0.60 (-0.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 8,326 | 8,816 | 8,738 | 7,884 | 9,519 | 9,898.93 | 10,294.03 | 10,704.90 | 11,132.16 | 11,576.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,314 | 1,389 | 1,389 | 1,316 | 2,495 | 1,788.46 | 1,859.85 | 1,934.08 | 2,011.27 | 2,091.55 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 813 | 881 | 739 | 568 | 1,678 | 1,050.23 | 1,092.14 | 1,135.74 | 1,181.07 | 1,228.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 501 | 508 | 650 | 748 | 817 | 738.24 | 767.70 | 798.34 | 830.21 | 863.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,455 | 1,448 | 1,424 | 1,627 | 2,394 | 1,900.26 | 1,976.11 | 2,054.98 | 2,137 | 2,222.29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,145 | 1,136 | 1,014 | 881 | 1,283 | 1,245.19 | 1,294.89 | 1,346.57 | 1,400.32 | 1,456.21 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 965 | 1,037 | 905 | 987 | 1,274 | 1,180.21 | 1,227.31 | 1,276.30 | 1,327.24 | 1,380.21 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -459 | -591 | -661 | -605 | -763 | -702.24 | -730.27 | -759.42 | -789.73 | -821.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 93.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.271 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 76.41 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.90 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.91% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.650 |
| Total Debt | 2,762 |
| Total Equity | 7,164.14 |
| Total Capital | 9,926.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.83 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.17 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 8,326 | 8,816 | 8,738 | 7,884 | 9,519 | 9,898.93 | 10,294.03 | 10,704.90 | 11,132.16 | 11,576.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,314 | 1,389 | 1,389 | 1,316 | 2,495 | 1,788.46 | 1,859.85 | 1,934.08 | 2,011.27 | 2,091.55 |
| EBIT | 813 | 881 | 739 | 568 | 1,678 | 1,050.23 | 1,092.14 | 1,135.74 | 1,181.07 | 1,228.21 |
| Tax Rate | 22.48% | 14.72% | 21.08% | 35.28% | 21.90% | 23.09% | 23.09% | 23.09% | 23.09% | 23.09% |
| EBIAT | 630.27 | 751.35 | 583.25 | 367.59 | 1,310.56 | 807.73 | 839.97 | 873.50 | 908.36 | 944.62 |
| Depreciation | 501 | 508 | 650 | 748 | 817 | 738.24 | 767.70 | 798.34 | 830.21 | 863.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 9 | 122 | 133 | -402 | 37.81 | -49.70 | -51.68 | -53.75 | -55.89 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 72 | -132 | 82 | 287 | -93.79 | 47.11 | 48.99 | 50.94 | 52.97 |
| Capital Expenditure | -459 | -591 | -661 | -605 | -763 | -702.24 | -730.27 | -759.42 | -789.73 | -821.25 |
| UFCF | 672.27 | 749.35 | 562.25 | 725.59 | 1,249.56 | 787.74 | 874.81 | 909.73 | 946.04 | 983.80 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 729.06 | 749.31 | 721.17 | 694.08 | 668.01 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,561.63 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.05 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,003.47 |
| Terminal Value | 16,586.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,262.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,823.89 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 477 |
| Equity Value | 14,346.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 76.41 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 187.76 |